That was too close for Chennai, one of the intense storms of this season, both Karaikkal and Machilipattinam radars picked those storms 400 km away with such high decibels. Let’s try our luck tomorrow.
Vellore super intense storms are seen blooming, Tiruppur, Annur in Kovai. Kotagiri and Coonoor in Nilgiri, down south Theni areas around Cumbum are also seeing thunderstorms.
Kerala except part of Idukki and Eranakulam and in north Kozhikode and Malappuram dts are seeing thunderstorms.
What a start it has been to City Monsoon, the observed rainfall till today morning shows the impact, north Chennai got while southern Chennai though it got rains, it missed out on the intense spells north Chennai got. The map and the data are detailed below –
24 hrs Rainfall in mm in KTCC on 01.11.2022, North Chennai special
(min 40 mm)
Kathivakkam (GCC) – 155
Perambur (GCC) – 141
New Manali Town (GCC) – 140
Tondairpet (GCC) – 140
Thiruvottiyur (GCC) – 132
Rehills (Revenue) – 127
Anna Nagar West (GCC) – 118
Royapuram (CMWSSB) – 119
Tondairpet (CMWSSB) – 111
Kolathur (GCC) – 109
Vilivakkam (IMD) – 102
Gumidipoondi (Revenue) – 102
Ice House (GCC) – 100
Ponneri (Revenue) – 99
Rippon Building (GCC) – 97
Teynampet (GCC) – 97
Royapuram (GCC) – 84
Kodambakkam (GCC) – 84
Nungambakkam (IMD) – 80
Shenoy Nagar (GCC) – 80
Cholavaram Lake (Revenue) – 79
Nandanam (IMD) – 73
T.Nagar (CMWSSB) – 72
Alwarpet (CMWSSB) – 71
Maduravoyal (GCC) – 69
Adyar (GCC) – 69
Adyar Eco Park (GCC) – 65
Ambattur (GCC) – 55
Alandur (GCC) – 55
Valsaravakkam (GCC) – 54
Velappanchavadi (IMD) – 47
Avadi (Revenue) – 46
Velacherry (GCC) – 46
Alandur (CMWSSB) – 45
Thamaraipakkam (Revenue) – 44
Valsaravakkam (CMWSSB) – 43
Uthukottai (Revenue) – 43
Perungudi (GCC) – 43
Guindy (IMD) – 42
Meenambakkam (IMD) – 41
Mugalivakkam (GCC) – 40
Madipakkam – 40
A KTCC special is clearly seen, when it rains here, most other places will remain clam, except for Kumari. Kanyakumari got intense Thunderstorms and the rainfall recorded are as follows
Thuckalay – 82
Eraniel – 63
Chittar II Dam – 55
Perunchani – 47
Colachel – 46
Suralacode – 46
Puthan Dam – 45
Pechiparai – 27
Kannimar – 21
Nagercoil – 20
Coming today after 8.30 am, the rains have been relentless again but the Southern Chennai, OMR, ECR have been getting very good rains and the rains have slowly shifted upto the city. Many places have already recorded 50-70 mm from 8.30 am today which would end as tomorrow 24 hrs rainfall at 8.30 am. Cumulatively, the rainfall has touched 150 mm in most places from yesterday night.
What happens next for Chennai and KTCC till tomorrow ?
Today to tomorrow morning is key time and the present rains are expected to sustain for 3-4 more hours and South Chennai as a nature balancing act is getting rains from the morning compared to north chennai places. A perfect balancing act from the nature.
As of now, the water levels in the dams are safe and have sufficient cushion, the temporary water stagnation in the roads will be the hardship. That too provided time and break in rains will drain away.
Image courtesy IMD Radar
Rains to shift where in the coming days?
Other districts such as Nagai, Tiruvarur, Pudukottai, Sivaganga, Ramanthapuram, Tuty, Nellai etc and south TN will be in action. When ever a circulation moves into Gulf of Mannar to Comorin sea, South TN and delta will get good rains, even cuddalore too.
Is it all over for Chennai from tomorrow – No, regular monsoon rains and some spells at times will continue, not these times of widespread ones, even if rains heavily it will be in isolated places.
Dedicated rainfall forecast for Chennai Basin by our Govt.
Do visit the rainfall maps and forecast maps prepared by our Government of Tamil Nadu with all rainfall data and stats and easy to understand. The website is a work in progress and will be made more user friendly as it evolves – https://www.chennaifloodsdss.in/
With MJO in our Basin, it is inevitable to avoid Low Pressures / Depressions / Cyclones in our seas. Presently, the kingmaker MJO is in very favorable phase in our basin and it is very conducive for development of Cyclone. The 1st system (system here defines low pressure as of now) is fully home grown baby of Bay of Bengal thanks to MJO. MJO is presently
1. Two Scenarios for the 1st MJO Baby (Nivar) – 1st Scenario (Weak Cyclone = Delta Landfall)
2. 2nd Scenario (Strong Cyclone – Karaikkal to Chennai)
3. South and South West will miss rains
In both Scenarios, south and South West TN like Nellai, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Tenkasi and Dindigul.
Note: The above are just two likely scenario’s once there is model consensus on intensity in a day, we can freeze many things. Just 24 hours we can get 90% clarity.
4. Steering – Why North Tamil Nadu ?
Why cyclone is moving towards North Tamil Nadu, as you can see majority of our Cyclone will be steered by the Pacific ridge with upper steering and very rarely they take Arabian Sea ridge (Gaja in 2018) in under steering. The outflow in upper steered ridges are always allow the cyclones to breath well while under-steered systems are choked and does not intensify a lot (Gaja was an exception due to nil wind shear). Namma MJO baby is an upper steered system through the ridge extending from Pacific side.
5. Favorable parameters for Cyclone to intensify
Positives
Negatives
6. Delta People – No wind threat for Delta, please dont cut the trees
Heard Delta People in Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur are cutting Coconut trees based on news spread by someone . Just a kind request for the bloggers, when it comes to cyclone, it is not time to see who post 1st and who gets name or who gets most likes what are you going to do with that name ? It was heart breaking to see photos of people doing this to Coconut trees and waste of money because of too early posts and videos in youtube on the cyclone. The models are started to shift from Delta to northwards, one should not be mundari kottai when it comes to cyclone. Model consensus is very important and there will be always a twist. 1 bad blogger will bring bad name to all the good work done by many of the bloggers. Please do this as a service and not for anything else.
7. What will be the Cyclone Name for our MJO Baby
The next name in the cyclone list is Gati but Gati name will be given to the Somalia system. Remember the circulation near Maldives which gave awesome rains to South TN indirectly that circulation has now moved west and has become a beautiful cyclone.
This is more than a Deep Depression strength with a well defined eye and IMD will announce Cyclone Gati soon.
8. Our MJO baby will be named “Cyclone Nivar” and Cyclone avoid Sri Lanka for unknown reasons. Strangely the cyclone which try to avoid Sri Lanka and move towards TN coast are all with Coincidence starts with letter “N” – Nisha in 2008, Nilam in 2012 and now the expected Nivar which was shown crashing into Sri Lanka is now avoiding Sri Lanka and moving W-NW towards North TN coast. It is not the 1st time, all cyclones try to avoid Sri Lanka only very handful cyclones have crossed Sri Lanka.
9. Fishermen
Fishermen from Tamil Nadu, Pondy and Andhra are not requested to venture into sea from today. This will be followed by another low pressure / system within few days. So be cautious in going into Deep Seas.
10. Tamil Translation Courtesy Tami l Hindu online
The above interpretations are personal and are for guidance – Please follow the official agency and Tamil Nadu State Disaster Management agency for authenticated updates.