Its Saturday time, i can afford some time for weather after a hectic office weak. Just want to explain the existing scenario in one picture of what is happening with respect to weather around us.
Onset of North East Monsoon – Delayed onset on cards
With the low going to odisha and westerlies remaining, onset of North East Monsoon might not withdraw till October 20th. But who cares as long as Tamil Nadu gets rains. Particularly Kanyakumari, Valparai and Nilgiris (Gudalur-Pandalur) belts will be rocking with strong westerlies in place.
UAC on either side – Will be beneficial to Tamil Nadu too in coming days
We are back to damal dumeel days, yesterday Thanjavur-Trichy-Perambalur-Cuddalore belt got intense thunderstorms, today too North TN places are likely to get intense Thunderstorms. While Monsoon heavy rains will happen in Valparai, Kanyakumari, Theni (Periyar Dam belt), Nilgiris (Gudalur-Pandalur) belt.
Chennai – Rains chances from today to next 3 days
Always before formation of a low pressure Chennai and KTC (Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Chengalpet) chances are very high. Ranipet and Vellore included too. The UAC near Andaman is likely to develop into low pressure very slowly. This means our winds wont be much streamlined and we have chance for convergence in North TN coast. The ideal time for rains.
Will update the Rainfall data and Dam data shortly. Kerala is having the best water storage (even better than 2018 levels as on date).