Coastal areas KTCC to Delta
With convergence from NW and low being located in NE of TN coast, it is ideal pattern for coastal belt with winds from N-NW. Chennai had a high intensity blasting spell in the morning the areas close to sea got more rains than the interior areas. As day goes by, this will change as convergence shifts in the interiors. Chennai and KTCC should get good steady rains today and there is dryline-wet line storms on 22-24th October, if everything falls in place, we might get very good thunderstorms in this period.
Interior Tamil Nadu
Salem got 88 mm of rainfall today and more rains is expected in Salem, Krishnagiri, Vellore, Ranipet Tirupattur, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Kallakuruchi belt will again see rain today.
South Tamil Nadu
In South Tamil Nadu, Virudhunagar and Sivagangai is silently scoring with Rajapalayam getting 64 mm while Tirupuvanam in Sivagangai recording 73 mm. Parts of Ramanthapuram and Thoothukudi too got decent rains. Today too Madurai-Sivagangai- might record rains again.
Bangalore is ideally placed for rains not only today but also in coming days. And might see heavy rains too in next two days as they fall perfectly in the path of the dryline – wetline area of the converging winds. So watch out for Bangalore from 20 to 24th October.
Today and Tomorrow, Hyderabad has chance of rains but nothing to fear off as hyped in the media. Then dry days will start for Hyderabad from Thursday. Hyderabad is not a NEM station, so once North East monsoon starts they wont get much rains.
The easterlies are coming into Bay of Bengal around October 27 with a small circulation seen in Bay. Though Jaffna might get some rains today and tomorrow. the rains will increase with easterlies moving in from 27th. And a goo November-December await Jaffna with high probability of Excess rains there.
Easterlies moving around 27th October
After the present low moves up and fades away, we are seeing easterlies moving in from Indo-Pacific at end of this month in to Bay of Bengal. Easterlies does not mean onset immediate monsoon, it has to meet the onset criteria. And long range models continue to show very good rains in November and December for TN coast. So even a delayed onset in either last few days of October / first week of November will not spoil our monsoon, as per the models.