MJO’s 1st Baby (Nivar) growing in Bay, two scenarios, favorable one is between Karaikkal to Chennai

November 22, 2020
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With MJO in our Basin, it is inevitable to avoid Low Pressures / Depressions / Cyclones in our seas. Presently, the kingmaker MJO is in very favorable phase in our basin and it is very conducive for development of Cyclone.  The 1st system (system here defines low pressure as of now) is fully home grown baby of Bay of Bengal thanks to MJO. MJO is presently

1. Two Scenarios for the 1st MJO Baby (Nivar) – 1st Scenario (Weak Cyclone = Delta Landfall)

  1. Landfall – Vedaranayam to Karaikkal
  2. Dates : 24-25 November (Crossing date 25th)
  3. Likely Wind speeds – 70 km/hr
  4. Gusts – 80 km/hr
  5. Probability of Delta Landfall (Vedaranayam to Karaikkal) – 20%
  6. Extreme Rainfall – Tiruvarur, Nagai, Thanjavur, Perambalur, Ariyalur and Karaikkal
  7. Very Heavy Rainfall – Tiruvarur, Trichy, Namakkal, Salem, Viluupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakuruchi, Vellore, Cuddalore, Pondy, Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Ranipet, Chengalpet
  8. Conclusion – Widespread heavy rains from Delta to Chennai and extreme rains to Delta.

2. 2nd Scenario (Strong Cyclone – Karaikkal to Chennai)

  1. Possible Landfall – Karikkal to Chennai
  2. Dates : 24-25th November (Crossing date 25th)
  3. Likely Wind speeds – 120-140 km/hr (As a result of little bit of more time available coming to North TN coast than going to Delta coast, it intensifies more moving north than as a weak cyclone to Delta belt)
  4. Likely Gusts – 150 km/hr
  5. Probability of North TN Landfall (Karaikkal to Chennai) – 80%
  6. Extreme Rainfall – Cuddalore, Pondy, Villupuram Chennai, Kancheepuram, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Ranipet, Chengalpet will fall in path of extreme rains
  7. Very Heavy Rainfall – Kallkuruchi, Nagai, Karaikkal, Permablur, Ariyalur
  8. Conclusion – Massive Rains to Cuddalore-Pondy-Villupuram belt and destructive winds of over 100 km/hr. KTC (Chennai) will get very heavy rains.

3. South and South West will miss rains

In both Scenarios, south and South West TN like Nellai, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Tenkasi and Dindigul.

Note: The above are just two likely scenario’s once there is model consensus on intensity in a day, we can freeze many things. Just 24 hours we can get 90% clarity.

4. Steering – Why North Tamil Nadu ?

Why cyclone is moving towards North Tamil Nadu, as you can see majority of our Cyclone will be steered by the Pacific ridge with upper steering and very rarely they take Arabian Sea ridge (Gaja in 2018) in under steering. The outflow in upper steered ridges are always allow the cyclones to breath well while under-steered systems are choked and does not intensify a lot (Gaja was an exception due to nil wind shear). Namma MJO baby is an upper steered system through the ridge extending from Pacific side.

5. Favorable parameters for Cyclone to intensify

Positives

  1. Wind Shear – Ideal wind shear of 10-15 knots and shows decreasing trend (refer image below)
  2. TCHP – 60-80 KJ cm2 (refer image below)
  3. No dry air intrusion (refer image below)
  4. Sea Surface Temp is warming up and ideal (refer image below)
  5. MJO is in Phase 2 and with strong amplitude (refer 1st image)
  6. Steering ridge to NE of low allows good outflow or breathing (refer the steering image)

Negatives

  1. It is very close to coast – Time is short
  2. Very fast movement

6. Delta People – No wind threat for Delta, please dont cut the trees

Heard Delta People in Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur are cutting Coconut trees based on news spread by someone . Just a kind request for the bloggers, when it comes to cyclone, it is not time to see who post 1st and who gets name or who gets most likes what are you going to do with that name ? It was heart breaking to see photos of people doing this to Coconut trees and waste of money because of too early posts and videos in youtube on the cyclone. The models are started to shift from Delta to northwards, one should not be mundari kottai when it comes to cyclone. Model consensus is very important and there will be always a twist. 1 bad blogger will bring bad name to all the good work done by many of the bloggers. Please do this as a service and not for anything else.

7. What will be the Cyclone Name for our MJO Baby

The next name in the cyclone list is Gati but Gati name will be given to the Somalia system. Remember the circulation near Maldives which gave awesome rains to South TN indirectly that circulation has now moved west and has become a beautiful cyclone.

This is more than a Deep Depression strength with a well defined eye and IMD will announce Cyclone Gati soon.

8. Our MJO baby will be named “Cyclone Nivar” and Cyclone avoid Sri Lanka for unknown reasons. Strangely the cyclone which try to avoid Sri Lanka and move towards TN coast are all with Coincidence starts with letter “N” – Nisha in 2008, Nilam in 2012 and now the expected Nivar which was shown crashing into Sri Lanka is now avoiding Sri Lanka and moving W-NW towards North TN coast.  It is not the 1st time, all cyclones try to avoid Sri Lanka only very handful cyclones have crossed Sri Lanka.

9. Fishermen

Fishermen from Tamil Nadu, Pondy and Andhra are not requested to venture into sea from today. This will be followed by another low pressure / system within few days. So be cautious in going into Deep Seas.

10. Tamil Translation Courtesy  Tami l Hindu online

https://www.hindutamil.in/news/tamilnadu/604174-mjo-s-1st-baby-nivar-growing-in-bay-two-scenarios-favorable-one-is-between-karaikkal-to-chennai.html

The above interpretations are personal and are for guidance – Please follow the official agency and Tamil Nadu State Disaster Management agency for authenticated updates.

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Time to look at the sky & make wishes on 13th night to 14th early morning for Geminid Meteor Shower.

December 13, 2020
1. Meteor Showers
Named meteor showers recur at approximately the same dates each year. They appear to “radiate” from a certain point in the sky (the radiant) and vary in the speed, frequency and brightness of the meteors. There are over hundred established meteor showers, but only 3 meteor showers have zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) of over 100 meteors (ZHR is nothing but the maximum number of meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity).
  1. Geminids – Happens in December with peak on 13/14th December – 140 ZHR
  2. Quadrantids – Happens in January with peak on 4th January – 110 ZHR
  3. Perseids – Happens in August with peak on 13th August – 110 ZHR
Since the ZHR is the theoretical maximum meteors you could see per hour, it is likely that the rates we observe will be lower.

 

2. Geminids Meteor Shower
The Geminid Meteor Shower is also known as the King of meteor showers and considered by many as the best and most reliable meteor shower. So don’t be surprised if you see an uptick of fireballs tonight (13th December night) / tomorrow morning (14th December early morning). Geminids were first spotted in 1862, However, with only 10 – 20 meteors per hour, the first showers were not noteworthy. Since then, Geminids have grown to become one of the most major showers of the year.

 

3. 3200 Phaethon (Asteriod) is the source of Geminids Meteor shower
Geminids are pieces of debris from an object called 3200 Phaethon. Phaethon was the first asteroid to be discovered using images from a spacecraft. Simon F. Green and John K. Davies discovered it in images from October 11, 1983. Shortly after its discovery, Fred Whipple observed that the orbital elements of Phaethon are virtually coincident with the mean orbital elements of 19 Geminid meteors photographed with the super-Schmidt meteor cameras. In other words, Phaethon is the long-sought parent body of the Geminids meteor shower of mid-December.

 

It orbit brings it closer to the Sun than any other named Asteroid. It is known to travel around the sun once every 1.4 years disintegrating its dust every time it crosses our Sun.  Every December, the Earth’s orbit leads us through the trail of 3200 Phaethon and its debris, which crashes into our atmosphere and is known as the Geminid shower.
2014 Geminid meteor shower at Topaz Lake on the California-Nevada border. © Jeff Sullivan

 

4. How bright it is and can u see it ?
Geminid meteors are bright and fast (79,000 mph), and the shower is famous for producing fireballs at times, which are meteors brighter than magnitude 4, the same magnitude as the planet Venus. Meteor showers don’t require binoculars or telescopes to view — just your bare eyes.. If your local weather is clear enough and your skies dark enough on the night of December 13/14. If you’re out shooting them, you might still catch some!

 

5. How to See the Geminids shower in India, Tamil Nadu and Chennai

In 2020 the Moon is new this time so it will be possible to spend the entire night watching the Geminids without any interference from our nearest celestial neighbour.  The radiant reaches its highest at around 2.00 am local time (14th December early morning) making the hours just after midnight the ideal time to catch the Geminids at their best. The direction to see in Chennai is given in the table below.

(source Timeanddate.com)

You don’t need any special equipment or a lot of skills to view a meteor shower. All you really need is a clear sky, lots of patience, the following tips can help your shooting star viewing experience. Find a secluded viewing spot, away from the city lights. Once at the venue, your eyes may take 15 to 20 minutes to get used to the dark. Don’t go outside and stand to try and view the Geminid activity. Your neck will quickly stiffen and you will soon tire. Better to use a comfortable chair or lie down in mottai madi that allows you to look half-way up in the sky comfortably and count the showers. Especially if you plan to stay out long. Bring a blanket or a comfortable chair with you—meteor watching can be a waiting game.
In our busy urban lifestyle, some things brings us closer to family. Tonight will be one such day where as a u can see the shooting stars with ur family and kids love to see them. As the saying goes, “you must be present to win and dont forget to make ur wish” !!!

 

6. What’s next: Jupiter and Saturn are going to meet up on December 21

On Dec. 21, Jupiter and Saturn are going to meet up in the night sky thanks to a lucky planetary alignment, appearing closer than they have in about 20 years.

  • The two planets will be visible in the same field of view through binoculars or a telescope, according to NASA.
  • “This is the ‘greatest’ great conjunction between Jupiter and Saturn for the next 60 years, with the two planets not appearing this close in the sky until 2080,” NASA said.
A separate post on this later !!

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NEM ends, Dry days for next 3 weeks, MJO may return around Mid-Feb !!

January 22, 2022

A great North East Monsoon comes to end for Tamil Nadu even bettering the tally of 2015. Lets see the top North east monsoon rainfall for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry in the last 30 years

Best North East Monsoon in last 30 years for Tamil Nadu
1997 – 810 mm (All time highest)
1993 – 784 mm
2005 – 773 mm
2021 – 714 mm
2015 – 676 mm

Except for Madurai (+16%) and Ramanthapuram (+13%) all other districts have got excess rains above +19% and even for Madurai, it is wonderful rains after the good South West Monsoon rains it got.

Now lets come to the stats of Chennai

Top North East Monsoon Rainfall (Oct 1 to Dec 31) for Chennai City (Nungambakkam)
2005 – 2108 mm
2015 – 1664 mm
1888 – 1598 mm
1946 – 1582 mm
1997 – 1571 mm
2021 – 1485 mm

Normal for Oct to Dec – 867 mm

We can see that 2021 ended as the 6th best North East Monsoon ever for Chennai

Top Annual Rainfall Years – Chennai City (Nungambakkam)
2005 – 2566 mm
1996 – 2451 mm
2021 – 2259 mm
1943 – 2111 mm
2015 – 2095 mm
1847 – 2052 mm
1997 – 2035 mm

Normal for Jan to Dec – 1383 mm

For Chennai city 2021 is the 3rd best all time annual rainfall ever.

Wettest Novembers for Chennai City (Nungambakkam)
1918 – 1088.3 mm
2015 – 1049.3 mm
2021 – 1044.3 mm
1985 – 983.0 mm
1884 – 850.6 mm
1960 – 849.5 mm
1815 – 842.8 mm
1922 – 833.9 mm
1896 – 831.9 mm
1997 – 831.9 mm

Normal for November – 374 mm

Chennai City broke the 1000 mm barrier in a month for just 4th time in 2021 Nov (1918 Nov, 2015 Nov and 2005 Oct).

Next Rains for Tamil Nadu ? and Temperature in coming days

Temperature in morning will be pleasant in Tamil Nadu for next one week while at night it will be normal to slightly above normal by 1C along the coastal belts.

As for as rains are concerned we are heading for a break in rains for next ~ 20 days and then MJO if it moves into Indian ocean can bring some rains but it is too early to confirm as February is one of the driest month for Tamil Nadu. There have been exceptions in 1984, 2000 and 2002 when Tamil Nadu got massive rains after which it has been a lull of 20 years.  So we need to confirm 1st whether MJO is coming into our basin and then even if it comes, whether southern hemisphere will take bulk of the influence or will we get something too. We will get clarity by around 1st week of Feb. So lets wait till then before creating any expectations.

 

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