Few days feels like a long break, was hectic days to be honest. Tamil Nadu goes for a good break days from today. Next phase of rains will coincide with MJO taking short cut and coming into our basin, though majority chunk will go to southern hemisphere with ITCZ going down and cyclones expected there in Southern Hemisphere. We in northern hemisphere will get our share too with some more rains. December end and January are not our core monsoon period, so we need to be very careful in decoding the models, though they show rains. The month end rains will be there but we need to see, whether it will be widespread or isolated ones.
MJO coming back to Phase 2 by month end
So much needed break till 27/28th particularly Pondy to Cuddalore Delta belt, they badly needed this break with so much rains in last two weeks. The next rains will come from a system from West Pacific. It weakens a lot and sends a pulse (push of moisture) into our Bay of Bengal. There is very less chance for the pulse to develop into Cyclone, but it will be in the form of a inverted trough associated with easterly wave. So just before new year we will get some rains. There is chance for rains after new year with one more pulse coming from Pacific. But its too early to speak about it.
Pulse from the system in Pacific entering into our Bay of Bengal
What a monsoon we had so far, there are few central districts which are unlucky like Trichy, Erode, Namakkal and salem while for Kanyakumari kannu pattu pochu, since Nellai and Thoothukudi are in excess, it is rare for Kanyakumari to miss out. Pondy is 45% excess too. In December 1st week, people were wondering if Pondy-Cuddalore-Delta can manage to avoid droughts. What a change Burevi gave and then few days ago UAC in Comorin-Sri Lanka again pounded them with awesome rains.
Central and West Tamil Nadu received less rains not by too much, because none of the cyclones managed to cross from Bay of Bengal to Arabian Sea. If they had gone like that, then they would have rocked too. Overall we have got excess rainfall of 9% for the State. The best rainfall after 2015.
Will be in incommunicado mode for next one week !!!. Will try to put a post on Dam levels of the state and if possible a post on Saturn-Jupiter conjunction.