A rare spell to remember for lifetime in Chennai. Tomorrow North coastal TN, Interior / West, South TN will get rains.

January 5, 2021
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Nowcasting – In next 30 mins to 1 hour a small band of clouds will give some short spell to Chennai.

Look at the massive rainfall numbers which fell in just 15 hours (midnight to 4.00 pm). This is not November or December. This is January.  Not sure whether i will be alive to see another spell like this in Chennai when it happens next time.

Chennai City (Nungambakkam) Top 24 hrs January rainfall in 150 years

in mm

212.9 – 15.01.1915
99.8 – 02.01.1920
82.8 – 05.01.1903
82.0 – 06.01.2021 (ongoing will come as tomorrow rainfall ending 8.30 am)
66.9 – 13.01.1986
66.5 – 01.01.1909
63.0 – 05.01.2021 (actual rainfall 145 mm in 15 hours (63+82), because of 8.30 am cut-off rainfall readings are split)

Tomorrow and 7th – LWD rains in West Tamil Nadu / Interior Tamil Nadu while North TN Coast will again get good rains

With WD in North, easterly surge from Indo Pacific, An guiding HPA in North Bay, UAC in Arabian sea. The easterly winds easily moves into Tamil Nadu interiors tomorrow and at the same time coastal convergence will also be observed  in North TN coast.  So Chennai (KTC) to Delta region again has chance of rains tomorrow. And from tomorrow night the action will shift in the interiors and districts close to western ghats like, Dindigul, Tiruppur, Kovai and Nilgiris belt. South Interiors (Virudhunagar, Thenkasi, Theni, will also fall in the line of LWD. The LWD rains will be good thunderstorms to Interior Tamil Nadu from 6-8th January.  Not easy to identify the districts, see the complications in the below image. Overall good days to continue in Tamil Nadu tomorrow.

Kerala – Kerala is ideally placed in coming days for good thunderstorms with perfectly falling over clash of West and east winds.

Will Chennai get similar spell like today ? – Absolutely no. I will be happy with even 30% of the rains it got today in the next two days. Either way what we saw today was a special spell particularly for Weather freaks like me will remember today’s spell till my end days.

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On this day on Dec 24, 1964, remembering the Rameswaram Super Cyclone

December 24, 2023
Dhanushkodi was once an active town of fisherfolks but it was ravaged by one of the strongest cyclone ever to hit Tamil Nadu in December 1964. Most of the strongest cyclones to Tamil Nadu have come late in December Eg. 2011 Cyclone Thane, 2000 Sri Lanka Cyclone and 1964 Rameswaram Cyclone. These are strong cyclones with wind speeds over 150 km/hr.  Prior to 2004 cyclones names were not given in India seas and the place where it crosses that name would be given.
Courtesy NoAA
Most Cyclones avoid Sri Lanka
There is always a question among weather blogging community. Of the 100s of Cyclone crossing Tamil Nadu only few have crossed Sri Lanka 1964, 1978, 1992, 2000 as strong cyclone. For reasons not known, the cyclones always tend to avoid the rugged terrain of Sri Lanka and move up towards Delta or Cuddalore or Chennai or South Andhra. At that time in 1964, the Rameswaram Cyclone was the 1st severe cyclone storm to move into Palk Strait in 80 years.  It is evident that those seas in Palk Strait is not used to be visited by severe cyclones in their history. Weak Depression or cyclones might have moved there in those area in the past.
First Severe Cyclone in Palk Strait
On December 23, 1964 early morning, the cyclone crossed Vavunia in Sri Lanka with a wind speed of 260-280 km per hour and it on mid day on December 23, the cyclone moved into Palk Strait and made the 2nd landfall in Dhanushkodi near Rameswaram island. Three things are threat from Cyclones one is the winds, storm surge and then extreme rains in short period of time. The devastating tidal waves that were 6 metres high submerged all houses and other structures in Dhanushkodi town with heavy casualties. By December 23rd evening the weakened storm had moved near Madurai.
The next day on December 24, 1964, the people of India woke up to the news of 1964 Dhanushkodi Super Cyclone wiping an entire town of Dhanushkodi. It was the only one super cyclone to hit the state of Tamil Nadu in last Century. We would have seen intense cyclones such as Thane (2011), Vardah (2016), Ockhi (2017) and Gaja (2018) these are wind wise very strong ones.
Estimated record wind speeds 
Trincomalle in Sri Lanka witnessed wind speed was estimated between 220-280 km/hr while Vavunia town bore the full fury of the storm with estimated wind speeds of 280-330 km/hr.  Remember this was from the 1st landfall in North Sri Lanka and it avoided the rugged terrain of Central-South Sri Lanka. But making landfall caused the cyclone to weaken and it moved into Palk Strait. Mannar reported 190-220 km/hr winds, Rameswaram reported 150-170 km/hr winds while Tondi reported 110-130 km/hr. As a very weakened cyclone into south interior Tamil Nadu, Madurai Reported 80-90 km/hr winds.
Rains from the cyclone
The cyclone dumped huge rains in Sri Lanka over 300 mm in some places around Vavunia. Rainfall caused its major impact in Madurai from the cyclone.
Rainfall compiled by me
It was the storm surge that caused the major damage
Once the winds started hitting, tidal waves that were 5-6 metres high submerged all houses and other structures in Dhanushkodi town with heavy casualties.  The Tidal wave hit the Pamban-Dhanushkodi Passenger train and washed it into the sea while it was crossing the pamban bridge during the cyclonic storm 100-200 people died in that train alone.
Photo Courtesy (NS. Bhaskar Rao & S.Mazumudar)
I have compiled the articles from newspapers (if the image is not clear, open in new wand also the cyclone summary of one deadliest cyclone to move into Tamil Nadu.
Courtesy NoAA
Compiled from inputs from Metoffice, Bombay and NoAA, United States.  While collecting data found out that there was a interesting event in 1955 when a severe cyclone moved into Ramanathapuram-Pudukottai belt. Some places have 700 mm rains in 2-3 days there. Must be the heaviest rains recorded in Ramanathapuram district ever.

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Its South TN time to get rains while KTC (Chennai) looks great for good onset rains on 28/29th October

October 26, 2020

Hopefully, all are aware how the rains happen with easterlies in place. The coastal areas will get rains from nights to early mornings. While the interior areas will get rains in evenings / night.

Reason for Rains

With an Upper Air Circulation in Bay of Bengal, the one end of the circulation is converging with the winds from west. The wind direction is somewhat north to south with a slight tilt to east, so the south TN is more beneficial in getting the convergence, as there is nothing from west in north TN for creating convergence.

Today to 27.10.2020 8.30 am

The following are the places which are expected to get rains today and mostly areas close to the western ghats in the leeward side. With easterlies in place, watch out for Papanasam to Manjolai belt for good rains. Southern Kerala districts such as Kollam, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Trivandrum will also fall in the path of convergence.

 

 

Onset Rains on 28-29th October Looks good for Coast and KTC

Onset of monsoon is expected to be announced by IMD on 28th October and we are going to get good onset band of clouds from NE coming and converging near the Tamil Nadu coast. So on 28 and 29th there will be good bands coming one after another on 28th and 29th from NE. To be honest, i am excited to see the 1st clouds moving in from east and this onset will be a good one from TN coast, Chennai (KTC).

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