Kerala Rainfall on 12 to 15th May 2021
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Low to give rains to North TN & KTCC, days to watch are 22-24 & Easterlies seen in Bay on 27
Coastal areas KTCC to Delta
With convergence from NW and low being located in NE of TN coast, it is ideal pattern for coastal belt with winds from N-NW. Chennai had a high intensity blasting spell in the morning the areas close to sea got more rains than the interior areas. As day goes by, this will change as convergence shifts in the interiors. Chennai and KTCC should get good steady rains today and there is dryline-wet line storms on 22-24th October, if everything falls in place, we might get very good thunderstorms in this period.
Interior Tamil Nadu
Salem got 88 mm of rainfall today and more rains is expected in Salem, Krishnagiri, Vellore, Ranipet Tirupattur, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Kallakuruchi belt will again see rain today.
South Tamil Nadu
In South Tamil Nadu, Virudhunagar and Sivagangai is silently scoring with Rajapalayam getting 64 mm while Tirupuvanam in Sivagangai recording 73 mm. Parts of Ramanthapuram and Thoothukudi too got decent rains. Today too Madurai-Sivagangai- might record rains again.
Bangalore
Bangalore is ideally placed for rains not only today but also in coming days. And might see heavy rains too in next two days as they fall perfectly in the path of the dryline – wetline area of the converging winds. So watch out for Bangalore from 20 to 24th October.
Hyderabad
Today and Tomorrow, Hyderabad has chance of rains but nothing to fear off as hyped in the media. Then dry days will start for Hyderabad from Thursday. Hyderabad is not a NEM station, so once North East monsoon starts they wont get much rains.
Jaffna
The easterlies are coming into Bay of Bengal around October 27 with a small circulation seen in Bay. Though Jaffna might get some rains today and tomorrow. the rains will increase with easterlies moving in from 27th. And a goo November-December await Jaffna with high probability of Excess rains there.
Easterlies moving around 27th October
After the present low moves up and fades away, we are seeing easterlies moving in from Indo-Pacific at end of this month in to Bay of Bengal. Easterlies does not mean onset immediate monsoon, it has to meet the onset criteria. And long range models continue to show very good rains in November and December for TN coast. So even a delayed onset in either last few days of October / first week of November will not spoil our monsoon, as per the models.
Bangalore sound is more likely to be caused by Sonic boom, What is Sonic Boom ?
Bangalore sound is more likely to be caused by Sonic boom from a Bolide or also called detonating fireballs. We can name it “Bangalore Quarantine Boom”
Ps: I am neither an expert in weather nor in Astronomy, this report is compiled based on request and interest. And this is more likely the cause of the noise, if all others are ruled out. Based on an incident in Tiruppur which a reporter inquired few months, have gone through the reasons then and today to I can conclude that Bangalore Quarantine Boom is more likely to have been caused by a Bolide. Since IAF has told that none if their flights were flying at that time, this may be the reason. Again only if IAF is ruled out this comes into force.
The IAU has no official definition of “bolide”, and generally considers the term synonymous with “fireball”. Astronomers often use “bolide” to identify an exceptionally bright fireball, particularly one that explodes. They are sometimes called detonating fireballs.
What is Sonic Boom?
The sound released from the fireball is called a sonic boom. Sonic booms are caused by an object traveling faster than the speed of sound (about 767 mph at sea level). Because of their speed, they emit sound in an unusual way. Rather than producing sound waves in a spherical way like the ones that are created when a pebble is tossed into a pool of water, an object moving faster than the speed of sound emits waves in a cone-like pattern. It’s similar to the wake of a fast motorboat as water is pushed to either side.
When that cone of waves passes over an observer, they hear a sharp report, like a very loud and brief explosion. Since objects from space can hit the atmosphere at speeds of over 25,000 mph, which is far faster than the speed of sound, sonic booms are inevitable.
New York blast in September 2019 – Link
Washington Sonic Boom blast from Bolide in May 2020
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One can read this news and compare the relvance to today’s blast, atleast one guy there caught the sonic boom there, namma oorula who will record these.
Washington May 2020 with video – Link
Video of Washington May 2020 – Link
Kerala 2015 Fireball
The fireball, reportedly accompanied by a sonic boom, was noticed across the sky in parts of Thrissur, Ernakulam, Palakkad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts of Kerala at around 22:00 PM IST. The sighting of suspected fireball-like phenomenon, reportedly accompanied by booming sound in some cases, triggered panic across the Cochin in 2015.
Kerala 2015 fireball – Link
Kerala 2015 fireball – Link
Why then no bright light like 2015 in Bangalore
2015 event happened in night while today’s event in Bangalore was on daytime, it may not possible to see the brightness in the day time. While fragments reached the surface in Kerala 2015, this time in Bangalore events the fragments may not have reached the earth surface.
2019 in Tiruppur
I can remember a Vikatan reporter even speaking with me for days on a similar event in Tiruppur district in the end of 2019 or early Jan, where people heard a massive blast but there was no blast observed at the ground. The report never came in news in the end. Anyone from Tiruppur who heard this noise last year-end, can please provide their views.
Nasa Database of Fireballs Link
IMO Database of Fireballs / Bolide – Link