Isolated rains in TN to continue till 18th January, MJO enters TN in February

January 16, 2022
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Rains have been happening at isolated places in Tamil Nadu for the past 4 days. Particularly in the Anthiyur-Varatupallam belt in Erode and Virudhunagar belt. The easterlies based convergence at isolated locations are expected to happen 2 more days till 18th January. After which whatever isolated rains happening will become even more isolated. Coastal places such as Chennai too has chance in the next 2 days to get some sudden sharp rains at isolated places.

MJO returning back to our basin in February 2022.
So for January except for the 1st 2 days, there was hardly any rains expect for some isolated spells. MJO never came into our basin in January. But in the month of January, models consistently show MJO in Phase 1/2 and Precipitation anomalies show above normal rains, so lets hope some activity will happen considering that off-season MJO has to be treated with caution as bulk of the influence will be taken by Southern Hemisphere.

These type of isolated rains will continue to happen across Tamil Nadu till 18th January.

Rainfall in Tamil Nadu on 16.01.2022
———–
in mm

Karupandhi Dam, Thenkasi – 59
Pilavakkal Dam, Virudhungar – 46
Varattupallam, Erode – 45
Tenkasi, Tenkasi – 37
Pallipattu, Tiruvallur – 27
Shencottai, Thenkasi – 27
Kunderipallam, Erode – 23
Tiruchendur, Thoothukudi – 21
Arani, Tiruvannamalai – 19
Gundar, Thenkasi – 13
Adavinyanar, Thenkasi – 12
Srivilliputtur, Virudhunagar – 11
Kalavai, Ranipet – 10
Anna University, Chennai – 7
Bodinayakanur, Theni – 6
Annamalai Nagar, Cuddalore – 5
Periyar Dam, Theni – 5
Chidambaram, Cuddalore – 5

Rainfall in Tamil Nadu on 14.01.2022
———–
in mm

Ammapettai, Erode – 71
Varattupallam, Erode – 87
MRC Nagar, Chennai – 10
Anna University, Chennai – 7
Nandanam, Chennai – 7
Katupakkam, Chengalpet – 5

Rainfall in Tamil Nadu on 13.01.2022
———-
in mm

Vellakoil, Tiruppur – 33
Srivilliputhur, Virudhunagar – 30
Usilampatti, Madurai – 26
Peraiyur, Madurai – 14
Madukkur, Thanjavur – 9
Ayikudi, Tenkasi – 7
Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar – 6
Pattukottai, Thanjavur – 6
Watrap,Virudhungar – 5
Periyakulam, Theni – 5

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NEM ends, Dry days for next 3 weeks, MJO may return around Mid-Feb !!

January 22, 2022

A great North East Monsoon comes to end for Tamil Nadu even bettering the tally of 2015. Lets see the top North east monsoon rainfall for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry in the last 30 years

Best North East Monsoon in last 30 years for Tamil Nadu
1997 – 810 mm (All time highest)
1993 – 784 mm
2005 – 773 mm
2021 – 714 mm
2015 – 676 mm

Except for Madurai (+16%) and Ramanthapuram (+13%) all other districts have got excess rains above +19% and even for Madurai, it is wonderful rains after the good South West Monsoon rains it got.

Now lets come to the stats of Chennai

Top North East Monsoon Rainfall (Oct 1 to Dec 31) for Chennai City (Nungambakkam)
2005 – 2108 mm
2015 – 1664 mm
1888 – 1598 mm
1946 – 1582 mm
1997 – 1571 mm
2021 – 1485 mm

Normal for Oct to Dec – 867 mm

We can see that 2021 ended as the 6th best North East Monsoon ever for Chennai

Top Annual Rainfall Years – Chennai City (Nungambakkam)
2005 – 2566 mm
1996 – 2451 mm
2021 – 2259 mm
1943 – 2111 mm
2015 – 2095 mm
1847 – 2052 mm
1997 – 2035 mm

Normal for Jan to Dec – 1383 mm

For Chennai city 2021 is the 3rd best all time annual rainfall ever.

Wettest Novembers for Chennai City (Nungambakkam)
1918 – 1088.3 mm
2015 – 1049.3 mm
2021 – 1044.3 mm
1985 – 983.0 mm
1884 – 850.6 mm
1960 – 849.5 mm
1815 – 842.8 mm
1922 – 833.9 mm
1896 – 831.9 mm
1997 – 831.9 mm

Normal for November – 374 mm

Chennai City broke the 1000 mm barrier in a month for just 4th time in 2021 Nov (1918 Nov, 2015 Nov and 2005 Oct).

Next Rains for Tamil Nadu ? and Temperature in coming days

Temperature in morning will be pleasant in Tamil Nadu for next one week while at night it will be normal to slightly above normal by 1C along the coastal belts.

As for as rains are concerned we are heading for a break in rains for next ~ 20 days and then MJO if it moves into Indian ocean can bring some rains but it is too early to confirm as February is one of the driest month for Tamil Nadu. There have been exceptions in 1984, 2000 and 2002 when Tamil Nadu got massive rains after which it has been a lull of 20 years.  So we need to confirm 1st whether MJO is coming into our basin and then even if it comes, whether southern hemisphere will take bulk of the influence or will we get something too. We will get clarity by around 1st week of Feb. So lets wait till then before creating any expectations.

 

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Pre-monsoon Toppers, Records, Rainfall Analysis in May Month in Kanyakumari and Kerala

June 1, 2021
It has been one awesome hot weather season for Kerala and Kanyakumari. Lets see some of the stats from one of the wettest season. Some of the data courtesy to West coast weatherman.
1. Top Kerala Pre-monsoon rainfall (Mar-May)
1933 – 915.2
1960 – 791
1932 – 788
1918 – 767
2004 – 758.4
2021 – 750.9 (6th Wettest)
Normal for Mar to May for Kerala – 361.5
Now a basic question comes, though it does not make sense logically or technically. Lets see if massive Pre-monsoon rains have any co-relation with SW Monsoon (Jun -Sept) rainfall
1933- Excess
1960- Normal
1932 – Below normal
1918 – Flop
2004 – Below normal
2021 – Below normal predicted by Official Agency. But with Kerala monsoon, i dont think it is so easy to predict monsoon months ahead. Eg. 2020 September was wettest in 150 years. From 2018, it has been breaking records one month or another. And August and September looks very good indeed even this year too.

 

2. Top May month rainfall for Kerala

1933 – 738
1918 –  683
1932 – 646
2004 – 604
2021 – 569 (5th Wettest)

For the May month, it has been 5th wettest in 120 years for Kerala, the last time kerala got massive rains in May month was also during cyclone in 2004.  All the Top months for Kerala had a cyclone in Arabian sea. The 1933 cyclone, 1932 cyclones, 2004 cyclone and 2021 Tauktae.

3. Top Kanyakumari district Premonsoon rainfall (Mar-May)

1933 – 863.1
2021 – 639.1 (2nd Wettest)
1932 – 591.6
1959 – 540.8
1960 – 527.4
1995 – 508.2
Normal for Kanyakumari in Mar to May – 273.4 mm.
Thanks to Cyclone Taukate which pulled the moist cross equatorial winds, it has been 2nd wettest ever pre-monsoon for Kanyakumari.
4. Top May month Kanyakumari district rainfall

1933 – 715.9
2021 – 527.6 (5th Wettest)
1932 – 436.5
1959 – 383.6
1960 – 366.1
1918 – 354.9

2021 ends as 2nd best Pre-monsoon rainfall for Kanyakumari district and again like kerala, the rainfall in 1993, 2021, 1932, 1959, 1960 and 1995 all had cyclones.

 

5. Premonsoon (March to May) Toppers in Tamil Nadu

in mm (550 mm)

  1. Perunchani Dam, Kanyakumari – 1061
  2. Puthan Dam, Kanyakumari – 1030
  3. Chittar II Dam, Kanyakumari – 1030
  4. Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari – 1027
  5. Chittar I Dam, Kanyakumari – 992
  6. Pechiparai Dam, Kanyakumari – 976
  7. Kuzhithurai, Kanyakumari – 966
  8. Suralacode, Kanyakumari – 867
  9. Eraniel, Kanyakumari – 862
  10. Lower Kodayar, Kanyakumari – 838
  11. Mylaudy, Kanyakumari – 793
  12. Nagercoil, Kanyakumari – 702
  13. Kalial, Kanyakumari – 699
  14. Sholayar Dam, Coimbatore – 665
  15. Periyakallar (Valparai PTO), Coimbatore – 664
  16. Chinnakallar, Coimbatore – 648
  17. Valparai PAP, Coimbatore –  59 2
  18. Periyar Dam, Theni – 571
  19. Cincona, Coimbatore – 567
  20. Thuckalay, Kanyakumari –  566
  21. Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore – 558

The toppers were dominated by Kanyakumari stations.

 

6. Premonsoon (March to May) Toppers in Kerala

in mm (1000 mm)

  1. Kottarakkara, Kollam – 1979
  2. Pathanamthitta, Pathanamthitta – 1561
  3. Konni, Pathanamthitta – 1461
  4. Punalur, Kollam – 1370
  5. Kanjirapally, Kottayam – 1334
  6. Neyyar Dam, Trivandrum – 1279
  7. Moozhiyar, Pathanamthitta  – 1225
  8. Aryanad, Trivandrum – 1219
  9. Vamanapuram, Trivandrum – 1204
  10. Konni Estate, Pathanamthitta – 1201
  11. Ponmudi, Trivandrum – 1200
  12. Mundakayam, Idukki – 1193
  13. Keerampara, Ernakulam – 1187
  14. Kollakadavu, Pathanamthitta – 1137
  15. Kurudamannil, Pathanamthitta – 1122
  16. Erattupetta, Kottayam – 1118
  17. Perumthenaruvi, Pathanamthitta – 1092
  18. Bhoothathankettu, Ernakulam – 1081
  19. Kakki Dam, Pathanamthitta – 1072
  20. Kottayam, Kottayam – 1047
  21. Boyce Estate, Idukki – 1041
  22. Kakkayam, Kozhikode – 1038
  23. Alapuzha, Alapuzha – 1018
  24. Pulingome, Kannur – 1000
The southern Kerala districts has dominated the premonsoon season.

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