Amphan Update at 12.30 pm – Tamil Nadu Weatherman

May 20, 2020
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1. Crossing Area – Close to Haldia – Sunderbans

2. Time of crossing – 2.30 pm to 6.30 pm (Note First winds will be from North – Northeast and the then calm period when eye passes over, then comes the winds from another half from South-south east – So when there is calm don’t think cyclone has crossed and come out, wait for other half to cross from south-southeast, this is when most damages happen because most trees will be weakened in 1st half and gets uprooted when winds blow from opposite side, like pulling a nail through hammer.

Not only landfall, the cities where cyclone passes as cyclone at night is put below. So people has to stay indoors in these places at night in West Bengal.

3.Sustained Winds speed (3 min average) – 170 km/hr . Its not a super cyclone anymore.

(In comparison Fani last year crossed Puri with sustained winds of 215 km/hr, while Gaja had 145 km/hr and Vardah had 120 km/hr sustained wind speed)

4. Gusts – 200-210 km/hr – winds that can blow at times in short period.

5. Storm Surge – 5 mts

6. Cities in path at Night time, Haldia, Howrah, Kolkata, Rajpur, Barasat, Serampur, Barasat, Habra, Chakdha, shanthipur and Krishnanagar.

7. Maximum winds reported sofar – Paradip Port, Odisha 106 km/hr

8. Maximum rains till 8.30 am – Paradip Port, Odisha 214 mm

9. Heat update – Down south Chennai has crossed 41 C at 12.30 noon itself. Can sea breeze save from peaking to over 42 C, lets wait and see.

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Amphan is a monster in making!

May 17, 2020

Amphan is a monster in making, North Odisha to Bengal/Bangladesh border (Sunderbans) are the hotspots for crossing the coast.
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Please read the last two posts before proceeding further to understand the trend. And most of ur answers will be found in these posts. Please read them before asking any questions.

May 13 – Facebook Post

May 15 – Facebook Post

1.How strong can get Amphan get ?
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May month cyclones are usually strong and with low shear now, high SST, MJO in P3 with close to 1.5 amplitude, very high TCHP, this Amphan is a monster in making. Only when it goes further up close to Odisha latitude, it encounters increase in shear that should weaken a bit, still it will be a very strong cyclone at time of landfall. In open seas Amphan is surely expected to become a monster even 915-925hpa intensity can be expected but will slightly weaken to around 940-950 hpa at time of landfall.

Regarding the confusion on the name. Its Amphan while writing while pronunciation it is Um-pun. For Fani it was Fani in writing while pronunciation it was Foni. See the image enclosed.

2. List of most intense Cyclone in Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea
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1999 Odisha Cyclone – 912 hPa
1990 Andhra Pradesh Cyclone – 912 hPa
1991 Bangladesh – 918 hPa
1977 Andhra Pradesh Cyclone – 919 hPa
1963 Bangladesh Cyclone – 920 hPa
2007 Gonu (Arabian Sea) – 920 hPa
2019 Kyarr (Arabian Sea) – 922 hPa
1989 Gay – 930 hPa
2001 Gujarat Cyclone (Arabian Sea) – 932 hPa
2019 Fani – 932 hPa

Can Cyclone Amphan break into the list, there is high chance for the pressure to drop in open seas to 930 hpa later as it goes north, the wind shear is high and it should weaken a bit and does not cross at peak intensity. Cyclone Gaja had a pressure of 976 hPa, Vardah 975 hPa and Thane 969 hPa.

3. Rains for South India Peninsula – Kerala will see heavy rains from pull effect.
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a. Kerala – Parts of Kerala coast are getting rains now with winds blowing parallel to coast, but as cyclone moves up above TN and not too far, the pull effect westerlies will hit kerala perpendicular this means winds can come into Kerala coast, there will be good rains in the ghat areas too. Rains in Kerala will reduce after 19th May. Some places Kerala might get over 100 mm rainfall. But there is 0% threat of floods.

b. Andhra – South AP to Chittor -Anantpur zone has chance of one day of TS. South AP areas such as Nellore has decent chance of rains.

c. Tamil Nadu – Interiors will be filled with Intense Thunderstorms today and tomorrow. And one band is perfectly falling over Delta areas too.. Later at mornings the convergence shifts to NTN coast. If lucky KTC might get some spells but keep expectations too low. Chennai. All TS will be fast moving ones with gusts.

d. Karnataka – Managalore belt will pull effect rains like Kerala, the rains will be monsoon like. South Interior karnataka will see flare up of rains with high intense thunderstorms

During Thunderstorms, dont be in open water, dont tie ur animals to poles, dont leave ur farm animals in open fields. avoid playing in open fields during a thunderstorms.

4. Dry heat for TN and Andhra – Hot day and night ahead
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Refer previous post – From 19th, the dry heat in Rayalseema will be advected here to TN coastal belt. Chennai crossed 37 C yesterday, but thats below normal too. We will be seeing 40+ for sure from Tuesday with interior parts of Chennai City crossing even 42 C. Even at night the dry winds will be pulled towards us. So even at night 10 pm we can see hot winds. Entire Coastal areas and nearby interiors will be sizzling hot. While Kovai, Tiruppur, Erode which were sizzling will see westerlies like monsoon winds which means they will not be hot.

Possible Heat waves – While Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Chengalpet, Cuddalore, Pondy, Nagapattinam, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Villupuram, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakuruchi, Karaikkal all will see sizzling days for next 5-6 days from 18/19th May. Chennai from 19th May.

4. Was Amphan a heartbreak for Chennai / TN – No, unlike Fani, this was not. So Vada pogala. Fani was shown crashing into TN coast for days by models and then shifted. Amphan was clear, no cyclone rains to TN, if it is cyclone, it will miss us. Namma thaan ellathikum data compile panrom, lets see the heartbreak list

Heart breaks for Chennai
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a. Phethai (2018) NEM – Massive Bands missed Chennai by 50 kms. Chennai 0 mm rains & gusts of 40 km/hr witnessed from outer bands. One of the coldest day max Temp dipped to 26.8 C.

b. Jal (2010) NEM – So much expectations with direct landfall over Chennai but sheared and empty shell crossed City, 70 mm rains and wind speed 60 km/hr. Breezy day with maximum Temp dipping to 26.1 C

c. Gaja (2018) NEM – Complete miss for Chennai with 100 mm rains falling upto Chengalpet. Chennai got 5-10 mm rains. Nothing on gusts side for Chennai.

d. Madi (2013) – Went down without giving much to Chennai. Bands almost touched us. Chennai got 15 mm rains and gusts touched 35 km/hr.

e. Fani (2019) May – Expected to crash-into TN, the Bands went 300 kms away. Hottest day of the year 41.5 C and 0 mm rains.

f. Khaimhuk (2008) NEM – So close to Chennai. Chennai got 15-20 mm rains and gusts of 40km/hr was witnessed.

Amphan will not be added in the heartbreaks as it was clearly expected to move up once it was confirmed to become a strong cyclone. Had it been a LPA or UAC, then TN stood a chance. Even if it was a strong cyclone we would have got rains had it come closer by 250 kms from our coast, sadly it is going 500 kms away. In month of May only one strong cyclone has crossed close to Chennai it was in 1943 with Chennai getting close to 100 km/hr winds.

5. TNEB guys get ready to see increase in Demand for energy

6. Learn about the port warning signals, one need not fear just because it is announced in news.

Next update – If rains bands forms close to KTC or if anything is interesting.

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One of the best days for dry belts of Tiruppur and Coimbatore.

April 29, 2020

One of the best days for dry belts of Tiruppur and Coimbatore. Two more days the Thunderstorms are expected to continue in Tamil Nadu and then less than normal and dry days for some days. But may month as a whole looks good for TN interiors with active thunderstorms seen throughout the month.

Today to Tomorrow morning
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Today to Tomorrow morning interpretation, action to shift to South TN and with so much rains in North Interior TN, there will be some break in rains tonight. Sivaganga, Pudukottai and Ramanthapuram and even Thanjavur which have missed rains so far have good chance to grasp some rains today/tomorrow from this spell.

KTC
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Tomorrow the last chance exist, but that too feeble one with most of the convergence shifted to Pondy to Delta belt. After that we go in for break in rains, which means there will rains at isolated districts not like the list put up below.

Cyclone ? Pushed back further
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From May 1st week earlier the cyclone landfall has been pushed to May 2nd week. Further, MJO is moving away from our basin, Even if a cyclone forms…Climatology mostly favours Bangladesh and Burma. High chance of it going to Burma and Bangladesh than anywhere else. Last year Fani was rare 1 in 100 year odisha landfall because Odisha rarely gets May cyclone.

You can see ECMWF changed the location to Burma again and by 2.00 pm windy app will be updating the cyclone it earlier showed close to Odisha to Burma now. So this may not be final track too. Coming to GFS which was spinning monster for two weeks has been spinning a dummy past two days. So lets wait for cyclone to form first and then take a call.

Rainfall in Tamil Nadu, ending on 29.04.2020, some district data are missing due to lockdown.
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in mm (min 10 mm)

Dharmapuri
———–
Palacode Mill – 94
Dharmapuri – 38
Palacode – 32
Palacode North – 32
Dharmapuri PTO – 10

Tiruppur
———
Tiruppur Collectorate – 87
Kangayam – 64
Tiruppur – 60
Madathukulam – 23
Amaravathi Dam – 23
Palladam – 21
Tiruppur South – 16
Kundalam – 15
Avinashi – 14
Vellakovil – 13
Mulanur – 10
Udumalpet – 10

Coimbatore
———–
Coimbatore South – 58
Madukkarai – 48
Peelamedu – 38
Pollachi – 30
TNAU – 19
Periyanaickenpalayam – 15
Cincona – 14
Alaiyar Dam – 13
Sulur – 13
Sholayar Dam – 12
Mettupalayam – 12

Kanyakumari
———–
Nagercoil – 52
Tirupathisaram – 21
Chittar I – 18
Chittar II – 12
Perunchani – 11
Puthan Dam – 11
Suralacode – 10
Lower Kodayar – 10

Trichy
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Samayapuram – 45
Devimangalam – 18
Thathiengarpet – 14
Trichy Town – 13
Musri – 10
Golden Rock – 10
Trichy Junction – 10

Krishnagiri
———–
Penucondapuram – 43
Denkanikottai – 19
Thally – 10
Pochampalli – 10

Perambalur
——–
Chettikulam – 42
Perambalur – 36
Padalur – 12
Krishnapuram – 10

Pudukottai
———-
Manamelkudi – 39
Kattumavadi – 25

Ranipet
——-
Sholingur – 36
Wallajah – 11
Arcot – 10

Vellore
——-
Vellore – 35
Katpadi – 29
Ponnai Dam – 13
Melalathur – 11

Nilgiris
———
Upper Bhavani – 35
Lower Glenmorgan – 18
Kinnakorai – 16
Ketti – 11
Avalanche – 11
Glenmorgan – 10
Emerald – 10
Devala – 10

Tirupattur
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Ambur – 30
Vadapathupattu – 26
Natrampalli – 10

Theni
——
Vaigai Dam – 29
Sothuparai – 23
Manjalar – 22
Veerapandi – 21
Periyakulam – 21
Andipatti – 12

Others
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Tiruttani, Tiruvallur – 29
Sivagiri, Thenkasi – 24
Adiramapattinam, Thanjavur – 22
Mettur, Salem – 20
Arani, Tiruvannamalai – 17
Pamban, Ramanathapuram – 17
Rameswaram, Ramanathapuram – 10
Thoockanaickenpalayam, Erode – 10

Kerala Rainfall on 29.04.2020. One of the best day without a doubt. Massive numbers for Thunderstorms.
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in mm (min 20 mm)

Thrissur
———–
Enamackel – 159
Lower Sholayar – 33
Vadakkancherry – 32
Kunnamkulam – 20

Others
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Perinthalmanna, Malappuram – 138
Vadakara, Kozhikode – 45
Kochi (CIAL), Eranakulam – 28
Kurudamannil, Pathanmthitta – 28
Kollam, Kollam – 20

Trivandrum
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Trivandrum – 76
Peringamala – 29
Neyyattinkara – 29
Varkala – 22
Perumkadavilla – 22
Nedumangad – 21

Alappuzha
————-
Mavelikkara – 74
Kayamkulam Agri – 34
Kayamkulam – 24
Mancompu – 20

Kottayam
————-
Vaikom – 68
Kanjirappally – 24
Kottayam – 22

Palakkad,
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Ottappalam – 64
Chittur – 64
Kollengode – 57
Alathur – 46
Thrithala – 28
Palakkad – 22

Idukki
——–
Peermade – 39
Thodupuzha – 30
Idukki – 30

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