Another very good day for Thunderstorms in Tamil Nadu

June 29, 2020
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Thunderstorms to continue in Tamil Nadu

The dream days for Tamil Nadu thunderstorms has been continuing, today too pop-up has been seen at many districts. Earlier in the day, Ramanathapuram got surprise rains.  The UAC in South Andhra has slightly moved up, has become  elongated and has merged with east-west shear zone with two UAC in either side of the zone.

Reason for Rains

For rains in Tamil Nadu in leeward side, heat always matters irrespective or UAC or whatever. Without heat no rains will be seen in Tamil Nadu leeward side regions most of the times. In Break monsoon period like now, an UAC in southern Bay of Bengal always forms, but it wont give rains like north east monsoon, instead  an UAC presence nearby can enhance the longevity of the thunderstorms with supportive atmospheric conditions.

How long will this dream Thunderstorms last in Tamil Nadu leeward side

The monsoon winds in Arabian sea are going to get activated from July 3rd with a monsoon low moving into land via Chattisgarh—>Maharashashtra/Madhaya Pradesh  –> Gujarat. This will make wind unfavorable for convergence in Tamil Nadu Veppa Salanam rains, though there will be some thunderstorms we can expect them to be widepread ones.

KTC Rains to continue till 2nd July

With KTC having convex shoreline, we always have advantage with respect to convergence of winds when sea breeze enters after a hot day, the rains may happen in northern suburbs or southern suburbs or even right over like yesterday.  So next 2 days (till 2nd July) and today we have chance for rains in KTC belt. As usual, which place will get rains is decided by luck.

Tomorrow massive rains has been picked by models for KTC zone, lets wait and see if they retain the rains and change it to a lesser quantum.

Rainfall in Chennai and KTC (100 kms zone) on 29.06.2020

in mm (min 5 mm)

Sholingur – 58
Uthukottai – 43
Tiruttani PTO – 37
Kaveripakkam – 33
Madhavaram – 36
RK Pet – 35
Kolapakkam – 21
Walajah – 18
Nungambakkam – 17
Gumdipoondi – 17
Mugalivakkam – 16
Tiruttani – 14
Anna University – 15
Thiruvottiyur – 15
Taramani – 11
Perungudi – 10
Madurantagam – 7
KK Nagar – 6
Ponneri – 6
Meenambakkam – 6
Alandur – 6
Shenoy Nagar – 6
Ennore – 5
Shollinganallur – 5
DGP Office Marina – 5

 

Due to time constraints, rainfall data was not updated in the respective page. It will be done by tonight.

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Inflow in to Cauvery Dams jump while Veppa Salanam rains in TN will increase from today

July 8, 2020

Veppasalanam Rains are back, lets hope Chennai does not miss this time. Next one week daily rain chance exists.

With monsoon going into break again, it is ideal time for veppasalanam rains in interior and Coastal Tamil Nadu and places like Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Tiruvallur, Kallakuruchi, Salem, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Erode, Namakkal and other parts in South Tamil Nadu such as Madurai, Pudukottai, Sivagangai, Virudhungar, Dindigul, Trichy etc will be in firing zone for next 10 days.

Chennai City – We did miss rains last week with rains happening south and north of us, but this time there is no UAC there which spoil our rain chances. So we can expect decent spell of rains in Chennai with daily clouds moving from Vellore / Kancheepuram / Tiruvallur belt towards the city.

 

Cauvery Catchment Dam – A preview

For past two days, good rains have been reported in Cauvery Catchment and lets see the dam wise rainfall, inflow and the storage position.

1. Cauvery Catchment (KRS Dam – Karnataka)

Rainfall – Talacauvery the birth place of Cauvery River got 232 mm and 150 mm respectively on 07.07.20 and 08.07.2020. The other giant Naladi got 100 mm on 07.07.2020 while Bhagamandala got 135 mm and 100 mm respectively on 07.07.20 and 08.07.2020.

Total capacity: 49.45 tmc
Present capacity: 23.07 tmc
% full: 47%
Inflow: ~ 9000 cusecs
Outflow: ~500 cusecs

2. Cauvery Catchment (Hemavathy Dam – Karntataka)

Rainfall – Catchment areas in Kodagu district such as Shanthahalli and ChiGonibeedu recording close to 100 mm rainfall on 07.07.2020. Catchment areas of Sakleshpura Taluk in Hassan district got moderate rains.

Total capacity: 37.10 tmc
Present capacity: 13.51 tmc
% full: 36%
Inflow: ~ 11000 cusecs
Outflow: ~ 200 cusecs

3. Cauvery Catchment (Kabini Dam – Karnataka)

Rainfall – Vythri and Manthanvady have been getting steady rains for past few days around 50 mm. Thariode got close to 100 mm on 6th while 50 mm in the next two days. The catchment is area is such that it can generate good run-off. Hopefully we can see Kabini filled up by this month end and this will give direct inflow to Mettur once it overflows.

Total capacity: 19.52 tmc
Present capacity: 10.67 tmc
% full: 55%
Inflow: ~ 11500 cusecs
Outflow: ~1500 cusecs

4. Cauvery Catchment (Harangi Dam – Karnataka)

Rainfall – Galibeedu in catchment area in Kodagu is getting moderate rains and this is managing to get steady run-off. Once this is full, the water which overflows will go to KRS dam.

Total capacity: 8.50 tmc
Present capacity: 5.88 tmc
% full: 69%
Inflow: ~ 4000 cusecs
Outflow: ~0 cusecs

5. Cauvery Catchment (Bansurasagar Dam – Kerala)

Rainfall – Good rains reported in the Bansurasagar Dam in Wayanad with 110 mm on 6th, followed by 80 mm on 7th and 60 mm on 8th July. When it overflows the water goes to Kabini Dam.

Total capacity: 7.39 tmc
Present capacity: 1.64 tmc
% full: 22%

6. Cauvery Catchment (Mettur Dam – Tamil Nadu)

Only after the dams get filled up, we can see increase in inflows in Mettur Dam. Water has been released from Dam for irrigation from June 12.

Total capacity: 93.47 tmc
Present capacity: 44.32 tmc
% full: 47%
Inflow: ~ 400 cusecs
Outflow: ~ 15000 cusecs

6. Cauvery Catchment (Bhavanisagar Dam – Tamil Nadu)

The Nilgiris catchment area is very silent this year with July and August being the best month lets hope the next active spell gives good rains in Nilgiris catchment area of Bhavanisagar Dam.

Total capacity: 32.80 tmc
Present capacity: 16.48 tmc
% full: 50%
Inflow: ~ 2000 cusecs
Outflow: ~ 200 cusecs

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3rd year in row, massive rains expected in Kerala, Kodagu, Valparai & Nilgiris from tomorrow

August 2, 2020

Before going further, lets see the last two years August Rainfall in Coastal Karnataka and Kerala

Coastal Karnataka (Normal 756 mm)
2018 – 925 mm
2019 – 1376 mm

Kerala (Normal 420 mm)
2018 – 822 mm
2019 – 951 mm

As you can see how massive the rainfall was in the August month in the last two years and particularly the 2019, the rainfall shifted from drought to excess rainfall in such a short period and most of the dams started overflowing.  The ghat areas of Idukki, Wayand, Kodagu, Chikmagalur, Mallapuram, Thrissur, Valparai, Nilgiris all rocked. Coming to 2020, the rains are poor till now in the above districts till now like 2019. But this is all going to change this August too with 1st proper low forming refer the windy map of 850 mb winds used for explanation.

Till date not even one single low pressure has formed in the core monsoon region and this is the 1st low pressure area which formed in North Bay and then moves into core monsoon zone. It will be followed by next low pressure in the 2nd week of August. Whenever a low forms the otherside and moves inland from Bay of Bengal via Odisha->Madhya Pradesh->Mahrashtra->Gujarat, this activates the monsoon winds in Arabian Sea side and creates strong offshore trough. The first low pressure lasts till 8/9th August followed by next low pressure which forms immediately.

1. Interior Tamil Nadu – Windy days ahead and reduced Veppa Salanam rains

When monsoon gets active, the Veppa Salanam rains in leeward side will reduce but with strong surge sometimes the clouds cross the mighty western ghat mountains and have given rains to dry places of Coimbatore, Erode, Palyamkottai and other areas close the mountains.  You can see thee mighty monsoon winds is coming via palghat pass and some through the Sencottah pass. The winds also pass through Gulf of Mannar the other side. This means it will be super windy in coming days in Tiruppur, Karur, Erode, Namakkal, Thanjavur, Trichy, Nagapattinam etc and down south Madurai, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Ramanathapuram, Sivagangai will all be super windy for 1st time this monsoon. There will be some veppasalanam rains here and there but it will be isolated ones.

2. One week of Continuous downpour ahead in West Coast / Ghats 

Kerala

Starting from tomorrow, Idukki, Wayand, Mallapuram, Palakkad, Thrissur, Eranakulam, Kannur, Kasargode and Kozhikode needs to be in high alert and peak rains will happen between 5-8th August. These 4 days one should be in very high alert.  Coastal belt will get rains too but this time the mountain Ghat will outshine the rains in coast.

  • Peermede, Thodupuzha, Pambla Dam and Ponmudi in Idukki,
  • Nilambur in Mallapuram
  • Kuttiyadi and Kakkayam in Kozhikode
  • Thariode, Vythri and Padinjarathara in Wayand
  • Kakki Dam, Poringalathu and Lower Sholayar in Thrissur
  • Neeriamangalam and Piravom in Eranakulam

Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, Nilgiris and Valparai will be the hot spot for rains for next one week.

  • In Nilgiris – areas such as Pandalur, Devala, Gudalur, Naduvattam, Avalanche, Upper Bhavani, Parsons Valley, Mukurthy and Porthimund will get heavy rains.
  • In Valparai – the areas such as Valparai Town, Sholayar, Chinnakallar, Lower Nirar, Upper Nirar, Manomboly and Cincona will get heavy rains. Pollachi will get moderate rains.
  • In Theni – the rains will be confined to Periyar Dam-Thekkady belt.  Other areas it will be light to moderate spill over monsoonish rains.
  • Kanyakumari – Upper Kodayar belt will get heavy rains. While other areas such as Pechiparai-Perunchani
  • Thenkasi will get moderate rains and there will be good flow in coutrallam falls.
  • Nearby district such as Tiruppur and Coimbatore areas will get moderate when clouds cross western ghats.
  • Chennai and KTC will get fast moving rains and we need to wait till next week before the next low forms for Damal Dumeel rains. Till then there will be chance for isolated fast moving rains. And windy days ahead.

Karnataka

  • In Kodagu – Talacauvery, Bhagamandala, Naladi, Surlabhi will be the hotspots.
  • In Chikmagalur – Kottigehera, Kerekatte and Kigga will get super rains.
  • In Shimoga – Agumbe, Hulikal, Mastikatte, Yadur, Cogar, Megarvalli, Nagavalli and Nagara will be hotspots.
  • In Udupi – Kollur belt will be the hotspot
  • In Belgaum – Khanapur taluk will rock with rains in Amagaon, Gavali and Kanakumbi
  • In Uttar Kannada – Nilkund, Gokrana, Castle Rock, Anasi and Gersoppa will rock.
  • Other district such as Mangalore belt in DK, Hassan region of Sakleshpur will rock.

3. Mettur Dam

With massive rains expected in cauvery catchment areas of Kodagu and Wayand, the dams in Karnataka will get huge inflows. Kabini and Harangi will get filled up in 1st few days and by mid-august all dams will be full and huge water will released to Mettur Dam. So great days for Cauvery belt. The model output show, huge inflows with a once in 20 year event. Lets see how it unfolds.

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