Crucial days ahead after massive rains in Kodagu, Hassan, Chikkmagalur, Wayanad and Nilgiris

August 6, 2020
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Crucial days ahead in ghat areas of Kerala, Kodagu, Hassan, Chikkmagalur, Shimoga, Nilgiris and Valparai, with soil saturated, landslides have started and heavy rains are going to continue for days to come. Today heavy rains will happen in plains of kerala too.
 
Today
———-
I see no respite for rains in Cauvery Catchment in Karnataka (Kodagu, Hassan & Chikmagalur), Kerala (Wayanad) and Nilgiris. Other places in Idukki, Valparai, Mallappuram, Palakkad. Thrissur, Pathanamthitta will also get constant heavy spells till 11th August. Massive rains in Kodagu, Hassan, Chikmaggalur and Wayand for reported for 3rd straight day
 
Today too widespread rains is expected in these areas in Kerala / TN / Karnataka. And additionally plains will be joining too. Next 4-5 days is very crucial in ghats with landslides reported. From here it can get worse.
 
 
 
Kodagu
——-
Talacauvery reported 437 mm of rainfall and Bhagamandala nearly 486 mm on 06.08.2020. Not even in 2018 and 2019, they got so much rains in a single day.
 
Nilgiris
——–
Mind blowing numbers came, not even Kodagu or anywhere else in India except Cherrapunji belt can match the one day rains when it comes to this trio. See the numbers of rainfall in last 24 hours. Remember yesterday Mukurthy got 413 mm and Avalanche 395 mm. Over 1000 mm in just 48 hours.
 
Avalanche – 581 mm ending 24 hours on 06.08.2020
Mukurthy – 552 mm ending 24 hours on 06.08.2020
 
Bhavanisagar is getting huge 37000 cusecs inflow and at this rate will be filled up in 4 days.
 
Valparai too have followed hattirck of 100 mm rains Sholayar Dam is nearing full level and once full can contribute outflow to parambikulam. Periyar dam is getting good inflows. At this rate, Periyar dam will be reaching full level within a week time. Kanyakumari too got good rains with upper kodayar getting 100 mm rains.
 
Wayanad
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Wayanad Rains in last 24 hrs in mm ending 06.08.2020
 
Thariode – 229
Mananthavady – 186
Vythri – 177
Padinjarathara – 173
 
Its contributing huge inflows into Kabini Dam. Mettur is going to get more than 1 lakh cusecs shortly once KRS is filled up.
 

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MJO Vanthutaan, inimae Kannan Devan Tea Kudi, namma NEM ah Pudi Pudi (Tamil Pudi) !!!

November 11, 2020

Sincere apologies for keeping you all waiting. Hopefully the good news ahead is worth the wait. Pretty much you would have all seen the colorful Nippon paint charts from all the bloggers, my charts wont be different too. The upcoming event is more or less a confirmed event so most of the posts will be similar ones. Enjoy the rains from Tomorrow  (morning or by night latest) till 18/19th November with some breaks. Rains peak time is late nights to mornings. We can see rains in day time too at times, as the convergence is bit strong and persisting this time.

1. Exciting days ahead for Tamil Nadu, particularly the entire coast from Chennai to Kanyakumari

The last time i was so excited of heavy rainfall event was in November 1st week 2017 and we did get treat of extended rainfall in that spell with a prolonged spell from 31st October to 7th November. This time too rainfall starts from 11th and picks pace the next day on 12th November and extends upto 19th November with varying intensity of rainfall in between.

Unlike the previous two spells where the rainfall was concentrated in North TN (KTC) and West TN, this time Pondy to Delta belt will be getting good rains too. Right from Kavali in South AP to Kanyakumari the rains will be widespread. The above charts shows the accumulation and spread of rains. Dont convert the rainfall shown in the above charts to real values as the rainfall quantum will always be much much higher sides than the models quantum. There has been tight agreement among the models for the upcoming one week. Not only ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, ICON, GEM, JMA, BOM, KMA, all leading models are so unanimous in active phase of rains and out of the next one week spell, one or two days may even end up as a surprise event.

2. MJO the Kingmaker will move into Phase 2 after Diwali. Enhanced Rains – back to back Easterly waves are expected.

We waited for so long for the entry of MJO into our basin in next few days will and is not going anywhere and expected to stay in Phase 2 till mid-november around 24th. Due to which, next two weeks will see enhanced rainfall activity in Tamil Nadu and this enhanced activity can further extend to December 1st week too depending upon progression of MJO.

Even after MJO goes into Phase 4/5, we will not be under suppression and so we can see enhanced rainfall with breaks till Mid-December, if all goes well and even some chakkarams possible while crossing our basin in last week of November or 1st week of December.

4. Inverted Trough associated Easterly Wave on November 11-13

The Ex Typhoon Goni which devastated Philippines sent a pulse (push of moisture) into our Basin (Bay of Bengal) and it slowly developed into an easterly wave and will be in the form of Inverted trough tomorrow close to Tamil Nadu coast with an Upper Air Circulation below Sri Lanka. The rains will be limited to coast and South TN in the first one or two days that is between 11-13. Delta belt will be the 1st to get rains tomorrow from this spell followed by KTC and South TN belts.

Heavy Rainfall alert – On November 12 going into 13th, the winds perfectly converge over KTCC (Chennai and surrounding region), Pondy, Cuddalore, Delta coast, Ramanathapuram and Thoothukudi will all get heavy rains.

Eg: Inverted trough

4. What will happen on Diwali Day ? Chennai and KTC rains to start on 11th and very heavy rains expected on 12th November

For easy reference let me include the meteogram for Chennai and show the rainy days ahead for Chennai City. We can see the rains starts on 11th (if not at morning atleast by night) and then picks up pace on 12th. There is one good news though there is reduction of rainfall for one day on Diwali and then the rains picks up again from 15th. There will be some rains on 14th on and off and early morning too. But compared to other days the rains on Diwali day will be lesser one.

5. After Diwali the rains will further intensify till November 19.

And then after Diwali the rainfall intensity further is expected to increase on 15-18, some some super spells (good divergence indirectly seen from 200 hpa wind charts) seen a can be expected in that period particularly on 15-16th November along entire coastal areas, including Delta, Thoothukudi and South TN areas.  With MJO in Phase I/2, the interior parts of TN too will get rains atleast from 13th November.

6. Scorecard of NEM as on 10.11.2020

Tamil Nadu – 140 mm (Normal Target is 450 mm)
Chennai – 370 mm (Normal Target is 850 mm)

Once the rains starts, i will update the now casting (in FB / Twitter page).

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A perfect day from Delta to Chennai coast, break rains break rains for KTCC

November 11, 2022

Present Position of low

Low is still positioned East North East of Lanka and since it is far away from our coast, the coastal belts are getting heavy rains, Mayiladuthurai district is being pounded as we post this. Today too Delta to Chennai coast will be in hot spot while nearby districts like Villupuram, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Thanjavur, Salem, Thiruvannamalai, Ranipet, Vellore will all get moderate rains.

When interiors, west and south TN will get

When low moves close to nagai coast, then the winds will enter into the interiors and that is the time interiors and west will get heavy rains, till that time, they will get only light to moderate rains. We can see how convergence is limited to coast in today wind pattern. So konkam patience for western, south and interior heavy rains, while you can enjoy the showery moderate rains today. The low is expected to push a pulse into Arabian sea and there near Kerala coast low will intensify and move away, so pull effect rains is possible on 13/14th November.

Chennai what is expected
On day 1, widespread rains ranging from 6-9 cm have recorded in the city, we have estimated that around 30 cm is expected to fall over 11-14th, November. With 3 more days to go and heaviest rains ahead of us, the target is expected to be achieved. Chennai and its co region of KTC will get breaks with rains through out the day and as usual the moon time to morning times, the rains during this period will be the peak ones. The spells will be of varying intensity. Even in day time sudden burst will happen with low being near the coast. Right now if you can see the above images, we can see line of clouds for 100s of kms north east of Chennai.

Rainfall in North Tamil Nadu on 11.11.2022
—————
in mm (min 40 mm)

Mayiladuthurai
——-
Kollidam – 111
Sirkali – 81
Sembanarkoil – 71
Mayiladuthurai – 65

Chennai (min 50 mm)
——–
Thiru vi ka Nagar (GCC) – 98
Ambattur OT (GCC) – 88
Aminjikarai (GCC) – 86
Tondiarpet (GCC) – 86
Anna Nagar West (GCC) – 85
Kolathur (GCC) – 84
Meenambakkam (GCC) – 81
Kodambakkam (GCC) – 79
Valluvar Kottam (GCC) – 77
Maduravoyal (GCC) – 75
Kathivakkam (GCC) – 75
Taramani (IMD) – 72
Adyar Eco Park (GCC) – 71
Manali (GCC) – 71
Vilivakkam (IMD) – 70
Adyar (GCC) – 68
Ice House (GCC) – 63
Manali New Town (GCC) – 62
Velacherry (GCC) – 62
Perungudi (GCC) – 61
Nandanam (IMD) – 62
Todairpet (Revenue) – 59
Ambattur (Revenue) – 57
Madipakkam (GCC) – 57
Alwarpet (CMWSSB) – 52
Aynavaram (Revenue) – 50
Uthandi (GCC) – 50
Alandur (CMWSSB) – 50

Note: Revenue stations are 6.00 am readings while GCC and IMD are 8.30 am readings

Cuddalore
———–
Parangipettai – 99
Cuddalore (IMD) – 84
Annamalai Nagar – 75
Cuddalore Collectorate – 69
Chidambaram – 59
Vridhachalam – 48
Kuppanatham – 47
Bhuvanagiri – 42

Nagapattinam
———-
Velankanni – 83
Thalanayar – 71
Thirupoondi – 68
Vedaranyam – 65
Nagapattinam (IMD) – 60
Thirukuvalai – 59
Kodiayakarai – 40

Tiruvallur
——–
Ponneri – 69
Cholavaram – 61
Velappanchavadi (ACS College) IMD – 60
Redhills – 54
Jamine Koratur – 47
Thamaraipakkam – 47
Avadi – 45
Kadambathur – 44
Tirur – 41
Poonamallee – 40

Kancheeepuram & Chengalpet
—–
Mahabalipuram, Chengalpet – 65
Potheri (Katupakkam), Kancheepuram (IMD) – 56
Chembarabakkam (IMD) – 51
Kattankolathur, Chengalpet – 49
Kundrathur, Kancheepuram – 43
Chithamur, Chengalpet – 42
Kancheepuram, Kancheepuram – 40

Others
—–
Karaikkal, Karaikkal – 69
Thiruthuraipoondi, Tiruvarur – 41

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