Rare February rains, action to shift to east coast (Tiruvallur to Nellore zone)

February 21, 2021
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The trend continues isnt it. 1st it was record breaking January. We cant compare the February rains in 2021 in par with January 2021 rains.  But February – March are one of the driest months for Tamil Nadu that makes these rare rains special. Not often we these rains in February.

For past 2 days the rains have happened in ghat areas and interior parts of state in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. While in Andhra Pradesh it was coastal areas in Nellore and Prakasam district.  Today morning Thamirabarani belt got heavy rainfall with Manimuthar dam and Lower Papasanam dam both getting 100 mm rainfall. Salem and Erode too got good rains with hails at some places.  Right now at night good bands of clouds are moving into Pondy-Cuddalore belt and if it moves in the interior parts of Villupuram in north and Ariyalur belt down south will get rains. Overall North coastal TN and North interior TN will have good day tomorrow after which rainfall will reduce.

We can see now the rains will shift from western ghat areas towards east coast and interior areas of Chittor, Anantpur and also the coastal areas of Nellore and Prasakam in Andhra. Even Bangalore will get rains in interior Karnataka.

In Tamil Nadu it will be the north interior district Krsihnagiri, Tirupattur, Ranipet, Vellore, Tiruvallur and Chennai are ideally located for rains. Other interior regions like Dharmapuri, Tiruvannamalai and nearby districts will also has chance of rains.

These rains are too difficult to predict, for Chennai, it is all based on luck. If lucky we might get good rains else light rains here and there like past 2 days.

As expected Hailstorms were expected in many interior districts in Erode, Kodagu etc. Hails are observed by us with more probability when ever these upper level trough dips.  The Kodagu hailstorm video is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lM-gLgPx830 There is chance for more tomorrow too.

Rains will reduce from monday 2nd half and from Tuesday again dry days will start. In the past few 2 days good rains are reported in Karnataka and today good rains were reported in Tamil Nadu and Andhra. The rainfall details are as follows.

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288 mm rainfall fell in 6 hours & was one of the Nature’s balancing act for Core Chennai City

October 30, 2020

Right from start of the year the Core Chennai City (Old City Areas) was missing all the spells and in South West Monsoon Nungambakkam ended with just 293 mm rainfall in 4 months (lowest rains in last 10 years) while Meenambakkam recorded whopping 597 mm in the same period. You can see twice the amount of rainfall had fallen other parts of Chennai while core areas had not much luck, it happened to miss all the Damal Dumeel Storms in SWM. Infact in all my posts i started to quote Nungambakkam as cursed or desert.  This all started to change from October, in North East Monsoon, the places close to sea always has the advantage than the places over inland areas.

The morning of 29th October was a special event for Chennai, the Damal Dumeels brought the memories of November 23, 2015, when dryline-wetline event happened with thunders. Not often you would have seen such thunder in your lifetime, it was very intense ones. The dry air mixed with the moist air and the collusion created so much instability which resulted in such high number of thunders.

The rainfall was split by 6.00 am cut-off time and the rainfall which fell after 6.00 am on 29th October was added into 30th October rainfall. Technically, the rains started at around 3.00 am on 29th October and fell within a space of 6 hours, Mylapore got close to 300 mm and most of which fell in a space of 3 hours. Such was the intensity of the rains, blinding ones at times. The last time a place in Chennai crossed 250 mm rainfall in 24 hours was in November 3rd, 2017, when same Myalpore (DGP Office) recorded whopping 296 mm rainfall which too fell in few hours time.

It was perfect balancing act of Nature for the Core City, indeed and the curse seems to be lifted.

More good spells are due in this 2020 Monsoon. Some spells will be always remembered by me for lifetime for pure uniqueness and my personal favorites over the last 30 years

  1. 1996 June 13-14 – 600 mm in 36 hrs (Cyclone)
  2. 1996 September 11 – 160 mm in 12 hrs (100 mm fell in an hr – Thunderstorms)
  3. 2000 February 24 – 150 mm in 12 hrs (Low Pressure)
  4. 2005 October 27 – 420 mm in 24 hrs (Deep Depression)
  5. 2005 December 2 – 250 mm in 24 hrs (Baaz Cyclone)
  6. 2006 October 27-28 – 300 mm in 48 hrs (Ogni Cyclone)
  7. 2008 November 26-28 – 250 mm in 48 hrs (Nisha Cyclone)
  8. 2010 May 19 – 180 mm in 15 hrs (Laila Cyclone)
  9. 2011 August 24 – 150 mm in 6 hours  (Bubble Thunderstorms)
  10. 2014 June 10 – 60 mm (Thunderstorms from Sea)
  11. 2014 November 18 – 160 mm (onset spell)
  12. 2015 April 15 – 125 mm in 3 hours in Tharamani (Thunderstorms from Sea)
  13. 2015 November (4 spells) on 8-9, 12-13, 15-16, 23 – 1000 mm for the month
  14. 2015 December 1 – 500 mm in 24 hrs in Tambaram (Trough of Low)
  15. 2017 November 2 ~ 300 mm in 6 hrs in Mylapore (Low Pressure)
  16. 2020 October 29 ~ 300 mm in 6 hrs in Mylapore (UAC – collision of dry & wet air)

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Pre-NEM Deep Depression to dump huge rains in North Andhra & Telangana

October 12, 2020

October 10-15 – it is time of NAP to West Bengal to enjoy Pre-NEM systems

October 10-20 is period historically well known for Pre-NEM Cyclones and most of them go towards North Andhra to West Bengal region. We have seen some extreme cyclones too in these periods namely Phailin in 2013 and Hudhud in 2014.

Shear Relents and 2020 Deep Depression breathes on

In 2020 on similar date we are seeing a pre-nem system but not even close to the strength of Hudhud or Phailin but is packed with lots of rains. A day ago, you would have been searching where is Depression and there is no clouds in Bay of Bengal ? Yes the Wind shear was too high for convection to buildup, now with shear reducing, the clouds have build up nicely and nice bands are seen in Machilipattinam Radar.

Deep Depression October 12, 2020

We can see the Deep Depression is close to land and is expected to cross the land tomorrow. So the chances of named cyclone is less. The winds are not a threat but the rains are, these regions are already battered with heavy rains and soils are saturated. Anymore rains will cause some flooding in some parts of the North AP and as it moves inland it will pound Telangana.

Indirect rains from Deep Depression Spread across Peninsular India

The Deep Depression also caused pull effect rains in North Kerala and in Tamil Nadu, Kanyakumari got pull effect rains from westerlies while KTCC region including Chennai got indirect rains from the convergence associated with the Depression.

Mumbai will one more heavy spell, as system moves into Arabian Sea

The Deep Depression is expected to move inland and cross NAP coast, and then will sustain as weak system across the land and will cross into Arabian sea. Mumbai will get one final heavy rains in South West Monsoon from the Depression after 2-3 days. Lucky Mumbai indeed.

KTCC too got some indirect rains on 13.10.2020 in mm as follow. Desert Nunga joined the party today. Surprise indeed.

Kelambakkam – 39
Hindustan University – 31
Vembakkam – 31
Sriperumbedur – 29
Perambur – 25
Tirukalakundram – 25
Mahabalipuram – 23
Kancheepuram – 22
Nungambakkam – 18
Parrys Corner – 17
Madurantagam – 15
Sathyabama University – 15
Shollinganallur – 14
Arakonnam – 13
Marina – 13
Chembarabakkam – 12
Anna University – 11
Aynavaram – 10
Uthiramerur – 10
KK Nagar – 10
Walajabad – 10

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