Monster in making in Bay, No chance of cyclone crossing Tamil Nadu

May 13, 2020
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Monster in making in Bay, No chance of cyclone crossing Tamil Nadu, but Tamil Nadu chances for Rains depends upon how close it comes before taking north journey. Kerala will get pull effect rains irrespective of where it goes.
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Many of you would have seen news flash, the UAC in Andaman sea which caused massive rains to Banda Aceh in Indonesia has atlast descended from upper level to surface, this means low pressure has formed. I have explained the reasons in common man language, hope you can understand them. Please give a fast read, so u can grasp them.

1 Why Strong Cyclone chances are too high
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This one will intensify into a monster and will become even extremely severe cyclone, if not a Super Cyclone. It has MJO support which has skipped Pacific ocean and has come back to Phase 2/3, further Sea surface temperature (SST) of bay of bengal is boiling hot at 30-31C, monsoon surge bringing in abundant moisture. Total cyclone heat potential is over massive 150 KJ/cm2 near north TN coast. No threat of dry air and no threat of high windshear. There is some moderate shear on the way, but those are offset by other good ingredients of Cyclone.

2. Delay in intensification needed for System to move close to TN coast
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The low pressure in Andaman is expected to move towards Tamil Nadu coast in W-NW direction, here is the key thing to be noted, as long it is weak it will be easilyt pushed near us, but on the way, the SST get 30-31C further monsoon surge meets our low, there is a sudden bloom and the low pressure intensifies fast and takes steering shift. and moves north. Even if intensifies little late, it can come close to our coast and give rains to us. Remember there is 0 chance for cyclone to cross Tamil Nadu coast. In the case of delay in intensification it will come close to TN coast and will move to Andhra on the way it will intensify into monster again. So either bangladesh or andhra, it will be a strong cyclone. If Andhra we will get rains and less chance of heat wave.

3. Chennai Rain Chances ? Lets see how close the cyclone needs to come close to us
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North moving May cyclone and Chennai rainfall. I have compiled the closest the cyclone was from Chennai coast. So, we need cyclone centre to come within less than 220 kms for us to get rains.

1925 Cyclone moved from SE to NW and 218 kms away from Chennai – 100 mm

1952 Cyclone moved SE to NW and 148 kms away from Chennai – 470 mm.

1979 Cyclone moved from SE to NW and 195 kms from Chennai – 140 mm

1990 Cyclone moved from S to N and 172 kms away from Chennai – 410 mm

2010 Laila eye moved from SE to NW and 149 kms away from Chennai – 210 mm

2016 Roanu moved from S – N and 108 kms away from Chennai – 200 mm

4. Other parts of Tamil Nadu
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With Cyclone on other side, there is no chance of direct rains but when the cyclone is nearby we can see intense thunderstorms forming in our state with thunder and lightening which can dump high amount of rainfall in short periods.,

5. Kerala Pull effect rains
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Irrespective of Andhra or Bangladesh, Kerala will be seeing pull effect rains. When ever cyclone is in Bay of Bengal, if will try to pull moisture from the other side, we can good bands of clouds falling over Kerala during this period. So its a win win situation of Kerala irrespective of where cyclone goes, they will get heavy rains. Kanyakumari too often falls in this place, remember Cyclone Roanu, when it went up in 2016, Kanyakumari got massive rains.

6.Threat of heatwaves for TN and Chennai, if cyclone moves directly away from us without giving rains
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If the cyclone moves to Andhra, we wont see much of heat wave, but if the cyclone moves to Bangladesh / Burma without giving rains then Tamil Nadu, Andhra are in for frying as the Cyclone will drag away all moisture away and the land breeze will become strong this means hot winds from north west will be pushed into TN. Further with offshore winds being strong, the sea breeze will struggle to come in and this means prolonged heating.

7.All time Chennai Hottest days ever in May month
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45 C in May 2003 (Cyclone curved to Burma)
44.1 C in May 1998 (Cyclone curved to Burma)
43.6 C in May 1980
43.4 C in May 2002 (Depression to Burma)
43.2 C in May 1976 (Depression to Burma)

8.What does Models say
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Bangla group – ECMWF, GFS, GEM, ICON, IMD, JMA all take the cyclone up north

Andhra group – UKMET (namma famous BBC), BOM, NCMWR and WRF all bring cyclone close to TN and take it to Andhra

Rainfall in Tamil Nadu on 13.05.2020, one of the best days for Coastal belt in May.
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in mm (min 10 mm)

The Upper Air Cyclonic circulation over comorin area and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 1.5 km above m. s. l.

Thanjavur
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Peravurani- 102
Lower Anaicut – 49
Tiruvidaimarudhur – 42
Kumbakonam – 36
Orathanadu – 21
Aduthurai – 20
Maddukkur – 11
Thiruvaiyaru – 10

Nagapattinam / Myladuthurai
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Tharangambadi – 80
Manalmedu – 34
Myladuthurai- 33
Vedaranyam – 24
Talaignayaru – 18
Nagapattinam – 17
Kollidam – 17
Sirkali – 14
Nagapattinam – 10

Cuddalore
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Bhuvanagiri – 66
Km koil – 62
Lalpet – 60
Chidambaram – 43
Annamalai Nagar – 42
Kothavachery – 20
Kuppanatham – 16
Me.Mathur – 11
Parangipettai – 10

Villupuram
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Manampoondi- 50
Kanjanur- 36
Nemoor – 28
Soorapattu- 24
Villupuram – 21
Olakkur – 10
Anandhapuram – 10
Mugaiyur – 10

Kanyakumari
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Chittar I – 42
Kannimar – 34
Suralacode – 24
Nagercoil – 22
Mylaudy – 22
Pechiparai – 21
Boothapandy – 19
Perunchani – 16
Eraniel – 16
Puthan Dam – 15
Thuckalay – 15
Kuzhithurai – 11
Colachel – 10

Ramanathapuram
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Rameswaram – 40
Theerthandathanam – 31
Mandapam – 24
Thangachimadam – 15

Tiruvarur
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Tiruthuraipoondi -34
Nannilam – 34
Needamangalam – 18
Tiruvarur – 15
Pandavaiyar Head – 10
Valangaiman – 10
Kodavasal – 10

Pudukottai
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Mimisal – 35
Manamelkudi – 29
Pudukkottai – 16
Kattumavudi – 15
Karambakudi – 12
Ayinkudi – 11
Adankottai – 11
Nagudi – 10

Ariyalur
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Tirumanur – 34
Ariyalur – 15
Jayamkondan – 10
Sendurai – 10

Tirunelveli / Thenkasi
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Shencottah – 23
Papanasam- 20
Tenkasi – 18
Servalar – 16

Others
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Karaikkal – 52
Mahabalipuram, Chegalpattu – 29
Periyar, Theni 29
Puthu Vettakudi, Perambalur – 12
Eravangalar Dam, Theni – 10
Upper Bhavani, Nilgiris – 10

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2020 – An year to forget and a good January rains ahead for State, while KTC & coastal TN will get rains on 2nd January

January 2, 2021

So it has been been worst year this century with over 18 lakh (1.8 million) people losing their life due to Covid-19 Pandemic and it is also the worst pandemic since 1918 Spanish Flu.

List of years to forget in 21st Century (from 2001)

2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake & Tsunami – 2,27,898 deaths
2006 Cyclone Nargis – 1,38,373 deaths
2009-10 Swine Flu Pandemic  – 2,84,000 deaths
2010 Haiti Earthquake – 1,60,000 deaths
2020 Covid-19 Pandemic – 18,24,766 deaths (till 31.12.2020)

List of Pandemics in last 130 years

1889-90 Russian Flu Pandemic – 1 million deaths
1918 Spanish Flu – 25 million deaths
1957-58 Asian Flu – 1.5 million deaths
1968-69 Hong Kong Flu – 1 million dead
1977-78 Russian Flu – 0.7 million deaths
2009-10 Swine Flu Pandemic  – 0.3 million deaths
2020 Covid-19 Pandemic – 1.8 million deaths (till 31.12.2020)

Source – https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Influenza-pandemics-in-comparison-1.png

There are some years which we want to forget for eternity, 2020 is one such year hardly any good happened in 2020 and even we wished when the ____ year will come to end with a hope that a new year will bring many positives and cheer in our lives.

So wish you all an Happy New Year with a hope that new year bring smiles into all our lives.  So lets come to rains. There is good news in terms rains for Tamil Nadu in January and these untimely rains also can also be bad news to some of the farmers as it coincides with the harvest time.

North East Monsoon ends well statistically

It was one of the best monsoon since 2015, with coastal districts getting excess rains as we expected before the start of the monsoon. Western districts and some of the interiors districts which got good rains in 2019 missed out this year but not too bad one. They all got very good rains in South West Monsoon. So it perfectly balances out in the end.

Most of the coastal districts with access to Bay of Bengal rocked this NEM. Trichy which got record rains in SWM got it balanced with less rains in NEM. Overall for the year, Trichy still ended on positive note.

Based on the last 90 days NEM rainfall, we can see how the rains have happened right from Southern part of Thailand, Nicobar Islands and Banda Aceh area of Indonesia, Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu. So much pulses came from Pacific crossed into Bay of Bengal this NEM.

Papanasam In Tirunelveli proved its weight again in NEM, Kodaikanal was a little disappointment.  Jamaunamarathur (Jawadhu Hills) in Tiruvannamalai is a SWM station still rocked.

At last week of November, people lost hopes of good rains in Delta, Cuddalore and Pondy. It was Chennai which was rocking till then. But then it all changed with massive rains from never dying Burevi.

What a year for Chennai and KTC belt. Some spells like the Oct 28, 2020 spells will be remembered for very very long time. Thanks for Ponmar Ram Uncle for the charts.

South Tamil Nadu district Rainfall and The Topper of this NEM is OOTHU with 2641 mm rainfall

South TN also got very good rainfall this monsoon, with Thoothukudi in excess, while Oothu in Manjolai topped the charts for North East Monsoon with whopping 2641 mm in 90 days.

NEM is only statistically over and will extend into January well into Pongal

NEM irrespective of rains extends into January or not. It ends statistically on 31.12.2020. Any rains from 01.01.2021 will be counted in the Winter Rainfall category. MJO – Equatorial Rossby (ER) Wave is expected to come in to Indian Basin (Phase 2 & 3).

Tamil Nadu Great January Rainfall years in last 50 years

in mm (30 mm and above)

2017 – 37.3
2000 – 30.3
1990 – 86.5
1986 – 65.3
1985 – 89.6
1984 – 34.5

Normal for TN in January is 18 mm. All time Record for January is 141 mm in the year 1921. We are in for  one of the good rains in Tamil Nadu this January in the 1st 20 days of January. Lets see where we end this January for Tamil Nadu.

Next Rains for Tamil will start on 2nd January, 2021

With break in Rains on New year day, the next spell of rains in Coastal Tamil Nadu, KTCC, Pondy, Cuddalore and Delta will start on 2nd January.

Farmers in Delta belt (Thanjai, Nagai, Karaikkal, Tiruvarur) and other nearby surrounding districts and Cuddalore, Villupuram districts are requested to keep in mind the extended monsoon rains till pongal this year and harvest their accordingly.

With so much travel, i could not wish many on new year day.  Once again wish you all an Happy New year.

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Action to shift to North Interior Tamil Nadu. Parts of Kerala to get heavy rains, Bangalore in hit or miss heavy rains

May 11, 2021

Before going into the post, it was a month which i would like to forget. For those for here for only weather can skip this part and go to S.No.I.

Day 1 to Day 5 – Few hours fever on day 1 and CT scan on day 5 after breathing difficulties

Its been nearly 35 days since i got Covid-19, it was in April 3rd when it all started with just fever for few hours and the on 3rd day i lost my smell and taste completely, Tea and water there was not much difference in taste, i could not taste the toothpaste nor the smell of sanitizer nor the mysore sandal soap not even a bit. Since many are in denial to accept they got covid, these are some of the symptoms and along with it severe fatigue and body pain with occasional fever for some. There was no fever after 1st day. I was taking prophylaxis medication based on Doctor’s suggestion and all was normal till end of 5th day when i was hardly able to sit and there was breathing issues, immediately i was advised to take CT Chest scan and Blood tests (CRP, CBC and D-Dimer Test). Note the symptoms change from person to person. On the 5th day from 1st sign of symptom, i took CT scan (CT scan is not required for all only based on doctor suggestion for those who have symptoms of cough, fever or breathlessness. If taken immediately after  2nd or 3rd day of symptoms, the purpose of CT scan will be defeated). So note down the 1st day when u get symptoms most likely light fever for few hours 99.5 to 100.5F. Remember some people fever will be just 1 day for others it will be 2-3 days. Its not standard and changes from people to people.

On taking CT scan the spread was seen 60%. I was given Anti-inflamatory drugs (steroids to reduce the inflammation) and Anti-Coagulant drugs (to avoid blood clots) on doctor advise. The coughs on morning were very severe sometimes the coughs went for 5-6 hours continuously.  Same situation prevailed for 6th and 7th day with coughs and no fever. The C-Reactive Protein (CRP blood test) showed 22 on the 6th day.

Day 8-13 crucial days – cytokine storm

I was hoping that fever should not come back but worst fears came true on 8th day and i got Hyper Immune – cytokine storm and fever (not continuous) started from Day 8 and lasted 5 days till Day 13 and it was in these days the CRP values increased to 55 and then close to 100 on the 13th day. I was completely on AC keeping my body cool and was drinking water multiple times to keep myself hydrated. Oxygen levels were fluctuating between 88 to 93 without any support. I was sleeping with proning which helped a lot. With oxygen concentrator support at times for 3-4 days the SpO2 levels was maintained at 97.  On 14th day, the CRP levels came down to 26 after peaking close to 100. Once fever stopped the oxygen levels stabilized from Day 16/17 at 97 levels without any support. The high ldh values in blood test showed that there was tissue damage in lungs during the cytokine storm.

Post recovery period (3 weeks)

Loss of sleep with sleep coming at 1 or 2.00 am or you wake up at 4.00 am assuming 6.00 am, this happened to me many days, confusion, loss of concentration, head aches are common, fatigue you could barely walk for next 5 days.  Complete rest is required with continuing low doses steroids to avoid fibrosis for few more days and then tamper off. Since i had high CRP values i was advised to take Asprin in the recovery period based on doctor advise to avoid blood clots in recovery period. I was in complete rest for these 3 weeks. After three weeks going into shop i could not recollect my credit card pin number for few minutes inspite of trying hard. Entire back from neck had skin rashes red in color and then the head aches are terrible ones which comes occasionally.

After 42 days, i have joined office today, the experience in isolated room and psychological trauma still haunts. If someone comes close to you get that fear. Covid for those who become hyper-immune and get cytokine storm are very vulnerable if inflammation is not reduced by giving appropriate drugs at appropriate time.

Corona is not a another flu. Its dangerous once u get covid pneumonia or if u become hyper immune particularly with co-morbidity it complicates even more. Get vaccinated and at same time dont spend too much time in the crowded hospitals. Try to get vaccinated in places where there is less crowd and good ventilation.

Its Day 40, the taste and smell is yet to return and occasionally i can taste. So when u lose taste, try to eat food hot, its very tough to eat food which is not hot and even at hot you feel its too salty all the foods.

I. Massive Convergence with LWD in the interiors and westerly winds  seen in kerala

So far we have seen lot of action in South TN districts in the past few days and now the convergence shifts to North Interior TN and Mysore – Bangalore region with massive instability seen in the interiors.

In Kerala with the low forming in Arabia Sea, the part of moisture filled westerly winds are pushed into Kerala ghats so for the 1st time this season, the ghat areas of kerala can see heavy rains today.

II. Rainfall areas on Tuesday

  1. 90% probability of rains at widespread places in Kanyakumari district, Valparai belt in Coimbatore and Nilgiris (particularly Gudalur-Pandalur belt since westerlies is seen).
  2. 60% probability of rains at some places in Thoothukudi, , Dindigul, Tiruvannamalai, Ranipet, Vellore, Erode, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Tirupattur, Thenkasi, Virudhunagar, Nellai and Theni districts
  3. 50 % probability of rains in isolated places in Salem, Namakkal, Ramanthapuram, Delta belt of Tiruvarur and Thanjavur belt.

III. Heavy Rainfall of above 65 mm

  1. Hit or miss in Bangalore belt as heavy rainfall is shown by 50% of leading models and balance 50% models show light rains. If it happens, the Bangalore will see its 1st heavy rainfall of the season at many places of its urban area.
  2. Nilgiris belt at isolated places particularly in Gudalur, Pandalur, Devala belt and Kanyakumari region and Valparai belt.
  3. Kerala will see widespread rains with westerlies seen Idukki, Mallapuram, Kozhikode, Kannur, Kasargode (K3) and Wayanad will be back in action.
  4. In Rayalseema there is chance of heavy rains in Chittor and Anantpur districts.

IV. 24hrs rainfall ending 10.05.2021

Meanwhile Kanykumari has been getting daily rains but yesterday evening it was so widespread almost all the places got rains and of which Thiruvattur topped the charts with 75 mm rainfall.

V. Rainfall so far in Tamil Nadu in the Pre-monsoon Season

Even after these rains, still Tamil Nadu is -25% for the season and strangely the north east interiors districts such as Kallakurchi, Villupuram and Tiruvannamalai have all missed the rains. And north central coastal districts such as Cuddalore, Karaikkal, Puducherry have performed badly too.  In central interiors the unlucky Karur, Ariyalur, Trichy and nearby Thanjavur and Pudukottai has performed badly.

Erode, Nilgirs, Theni, Thenkasi, Virudhunagar have got above normal rains with Erode is excess zone.

Coming week rainfall should reduce the -25% deficit rainfall in TN.

VI. Future massive Sangu Chakkaram in Arabian Sea

With MJO coming into our basin and expected to bring itself rains at the same time it always triggers a Spinner with favorable SST, TCHP and also takes the moisture filled cross equatorial flow.  The spinner aka Sangu Chakkaram aka future cyclone is a monster in making in Arabian Sea. The path needs to be seen with wide range of landfall area seen from Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat.

With the cyclone taking most of the cross equatorial winds in Arabian sea, the other arm of monsoon in Bay of Bengal carries less moisture and strength so the onset of monsoon in Andaman and Nicobar island between 16-20th May might be delayed or might be a weak onset with very less surge seen from the westerly bursts.

There is one good news with the cyclone in Arabian Sea in Mid-May, this makes the offshore winds weak in the Arabian there by saving Tamil Nadu from heat waves though there will be some rise in Temp, it wont be as bad as ones with strong off shore winds. Till now in 1st 10 days of Summer we have escaped Heatwaves and have had blessed summer.

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